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TexPolls
The Road to November · November 3

The runoffs are over. Now it gets real.

4.35M Texans voted in the March primary, the highest midterm primary turnout in state history. Every statewide nominee is now set. Here are the November matchups, from the U.S. Senate to the courts.

86days to Nov 3
See the matchupsMake a plan
Lead raceUS Senate
Lean R
Democrat: James Talarico
47 percent in polling average
Republican: Ken Paxton
47 percent in polling average
Rated · Lean RLatest poll · Even · independent · Jun 30
Rated by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball (opens in new tab)
Polls
Talarico
47
Paxton
47

Latest poll · independent · Jun 30 · LV

New York Times / Siena College (opens in new tab)
Market
53.5¢Paxton
Jun 18Jul 3Jul 19Jul 30

Held between 55.5c and 56.5c from mid-June through Jul 27, then slipped to 53.5c on Jul 30, matching its post-runoff low. Range since the May 26 runoff: 53.5c to 61.5c.

Polymarket (opens in new tab)
Money
Talarico$68.6M
Paxton$9.2M

Total raised, FEC filings through Jun 30, 2026

Cash on hand: $21.5M vs $1.8M

FEC / Texas Ethics Commission (opens in new tab)

“a 1- or 2-point race” Sen. Ted Cruz · Jul 8 · via Texas Tribune

Updated Jul 31, 2026
Head to Head

The November matchups

Democratic nominee versus Republican nominee. Ratings are from independent election analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) where available, and Texas's partisan voting history otherwise. Not a TexPolls forecast.
All 25 races

Competitive

4· Tossup and lean races
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez
Republican: Eric Flores
US House · TX-34 · Federal · Tossup
Democrat: Bobby Pulido
Republican: Monica De La Cruz
US House · TX-15 · Federal · Lean R
Democrat: Henry Cuellar
Republican: Tano Tijerina
US House · TX-28 · Federal · Lean D
Democrat: Johnny Garcia
Republican: Carlos De La Cruz
US House · TX-35 · Federal · Lean R

Likely

6· Favored, not yet certain
Democrat: Clayton Tucker
Republican: Nate Sheets
Agriculture Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Nathan Johnson
Republican: Mayes Middleton
Attorney General · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Sarah Eckhardt
Republican: Don Huffines
Comptroller · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Vikki Goodwin
Republican: Dan Patrick
Lt. Governor · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Jon Rosenthal
Republican: Bo French
Railroad Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Katy Padilla Stout
Republican: Brandon Herrera
US House · TX-23 · Federal · Likely R

Based on Texas's partisan voting history, not a rating from an independent election analyst. No major analyst (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) rates Texas down-ballot statewide races. Methodology

How Texas Has Voted

254 counties, one history

How each Senate nominee won their party, plus the 2024 partisan baseline. Switch views below. A historical reference, not a forecast. County-level November results replace these on election night.
Full turnout data
The Outlook

How competitive is the November ballot?

Democrats favored in 4 races1 tossupRepublicans favored in 20 races

25 statewide and federal offices on the ballot

Safe D · 3Lean D · 1Tossup · 1Lean R · 3Likely R · 6Safe R · 11
Voting Calendar

Key dates to November 3

19M registered · deadline Oct 5Full election calendar
Register by
Oct 5
Register to vote
Last day to register
Early voting
Oct 19
Early voting starts
In-person early voting
Early voting
Oct 30
Early voting ends
Last early-voting day
Election Day
Nov 3
Election Day
Polls open 7am to 7pm

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