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TexPolls
The Road to November · November 3

The runoffs are over. Now it gets real.

4.35M Texans voted in the March primary, the highest midterm primary turnout in state history. Every statewide nominee is now set. Here are the November matchups, from the U.S. Senate to the courts.

112days to Nov 3
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Lead raceUS Senate
Lean R
Democrat: James Talarico
47 percent in polling average
Republican: Ken Paxton
47 percent in polling average
Rated · Lean RLatest poll · Even · independent · Jun 30
Rated by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball (opens in new tab)

Prediction market · U.S. Senate

Polymarket · Jul 3

Market-implied chance of winning in November.

Ken Paxton56%
James Talarico44%

Essentially flat since mid-June (55.5c on Jul 3 vs 56c on Jun 18) — the market has not moved on the NYT/Siena 47-47 poll.

Contract prices, not a TexPolls forecast. Resolves November 2026. Texas Senate volume is moderate (about $530K); prices can move on a few large trades.

Polymarket (opens in new tab)
The Texas Map

254 counties, one state of play

How each Senate nominee won their party, plus the 2024 partisan baseline. Switch views below. County-level November results replace these on election night.
Head to Head

The November matchups

Democratic nominee versus Republican nominee. Ratings are from independent election analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) where available, and Texas's partisan voting history otherwise. Not a TexPolls forecast.
All 25 races

Competitive

4· Tossup and lean races
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez
Republican: Eric Flores
US House · TX-34 · Federal · Tossup
Democrat: Bobby Pulido
Republican: Monica De La Cruz
US House · TX-15 · Federal · Lean R
Democrat: Henry Cuellar
Republican: Tano Tijerina
US House · TX-28 · Federal · Lean D
Democrat: Johnny Garcia
Republican: Carlos De La Cruz
US House · TX-35 · Federal · Lean R

Likely

6· Favored, not yet certain
Democrat: Clayton Tucker
Republican: Nate Sheets
Agriculture Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Nathan Johnson
Republican: Mayes Middleton
Attorney General · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Sarah Eckhardt
Republican: Don Huffines
Comptroller · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Vikki Goodwin
Republican: Dan Patrick
Lt. Governor · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Jon Rosenthal
Republican: Bo French
Railroad Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Katy Padilla Stout
Republican: Brandon Herrera
US House · TX-23 · Federal · Likely R

Based on Texas's partisan voting history, not a rating from an independent election analyst. No major analyst (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) rates Texas down-ballot statewide races. Methodology

The Outlook

How competitive is the November ballot?

Democrats favored in 4 races1 tossupRepublicans favored in 20 races

25 statewide and federal offices on the ballot

Safe D · 3Lean D · 1Tossup · 1Lean R · 3Likely R · 6Safe R · 11
Voting Calendar

Key dates to November 3

19M registered · deadline Oct 5
Register by
Oct 5
Register to vote
Last day to register
Early voting
Oct 19
Early voting starts
In-person early voting
Early voting
Oct 30
Early voting ends
Last early-voting day
Election Day
Nov 3
Election Day
Polls open 7am to 7pm

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