The runoffs are over. Now it gets real.
4.35M Texans voted in the March primary, the highest midterm primary turnout in state history. Every statewide nominee is now set. Here are the November matchups, from the U.S. Senate to the courts.
Democrat: James Talarico
Republican: Ken PaxtonPaxton held 55.5c to 56.5c from mid-June through Jul 27, slipped to 53.5c on Jul 30 and 51.5c by Aug 7, then dropped under 50c on Aug 9 and has stayed there: a low of 47.5c on Aug 12-13, 49.5c on Aug 21. Talarico has been the narrow favorite on Polymarket since Aug 9, a first for this market. Range since the May 26 runoff: 47.5c to 61.5c.
Total raised, FEC filings through Jun 30, 2026
Cash on hand: $21.5M vs $1.8M
“We see the Senate now as a toss up, one that still might slightly favor Republicans. But it is an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats.” Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report · Aug 20 · via CNN
Updated Aug 21, 2026The November matchups
Democratic nominee versus Republican nominee. Ratings are from independent election analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) where available, and Texas's partisan voting history otherwise. Not a TexPolls forecast.Competitive
4· Tossup and lean racesLikely
6· Favored, not yet certainBased on Texas's partisan voting history, not a rating from an independent election analyst. No major analyst (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) rates Texas down-ballot statewide races. Methodology
254 counties, one history
How each Senate nominee won their party, plus the 2024 partisan baseline. Switch views below. A historical reference, not a forecast. County-level November results replace these on election night.County pages: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis and 15 more
How competitive is the November ballot?
25 statewide and federal offices on the ballot
Key dates to November 3
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