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TexPolls
Texas · November 3, 202622 days to Election Day

Early voting starts October 19.

Polling, candidates, and voting dates for 25 selected statewide, congressional, and judicial races. An estimated 4.35M votes were cast across both parties in March’s Governor primaries.

See the matchups

US Senate

Tossup
Democrat: James Talarico
47 percent in polling average
Republican: Ken Paxton
44 percent in polling average
Polling average12-poll avg · D+3 · independent · Sep 30
Rated by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball (opens in new tab)

Governor

Lean R
Democrat: Gina Hinojosa
45 percent in polling average
Republican: Greg Abbott (incumbent)
48 percent in polling average
Polling average11-poll avg · R+3 · independent · Sep 30
Rated by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball (opens in new tab)
US Senate: sources, markets & money
Polling sources

Equal-weight average of 12 independent likely-voter polls since the runoff. How we select polls

Market contract price
37.5¢Paxton
Jun 18Oct 12
15 recorded prices
  • Jun 18: 55.5¢
  • Jul 3: 55.5¢
  • Jul 19: 56.5¢
  • Jul 30: 53.5¢
  • Aug 7: 51.5¢
  • Aug 12: 47.5¢
  • Aug 21: 49.5¢
  • Sep 6: 49.5¢
  • Oct 6: 35.5¢
  • Oct 7: 34.5¢
  • Oct 8: 34.5¢
  • Oct 9: 37.5¢
  • Oct 10: 37.5¢
  • Oct 11: 36.5¢
  • Oct 12: 37.5¢

Recorded snapshots, not a continuous feed. Updated Oct 12.

Paxton’s contract fell from 49.5¢ on Sept 6 to 35.5¢ on Oct 6. Talarico’s rose from 50.5¢ to 64.5¢. Kalshi’s latest trades also favored Talarico, at 67¢ versus 33¢ for Paxton.

Polymarket (opens in new tab)
Money
Talarico$68.6M
Paxton$9.2M

Raised this election cycle · Talarico: FEC through Jun 30, 2026 · Paxton: FEC through Jun 30, 2026

Cash on hand: $21.5M vs $1.8M

FEC (Talarico) (opens in new tab)FEC (Paxton) (opens in new tab)

“We see the Senate now as a toss up, one that still might slightly favor Republicans. But it is an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats.” Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report · Aug 20 · via CNN

Updated Oct 6, 2026
Governor: sources, markets & money
Polling sources

Equal-weight average of 11 independent likely-voter polls since the runoff. How we select polls

Market contract price
79.45¢Abbott
Jul 19Oct 12
10 recorded prices
  • Jul 19: 90¢
  • Aug 21: 87.8¢
  • Sep 6: 82.1¢
  • Oct 6: 72.25¢
  • Oct 7: 72.25¢
  • Oct 8: 73.35¢
  • Oct 9: 73.85¢
  • Oct 10: 77.2¢
  • Oct 11: 79.45¢
  • Oct 12: 79.45¢

Recorded snapshots, not a continuous feed. Updated Oct 12.

Abbott’s contract fell from 82.1¢ on Sept 6 to 72.45¢ on Oct 6. Hinojosa’s rose from 18¢ to 26.5¢ over that period.

Polymarket (opens in new tab)
Money
Hinojosa$13.3M
Abbott$20.3M

Raised this reporting period · Hinojosa: Texas Ethics Commission Jul 1–Sep 24 · Abbott: Texas Ethics Commission Jul 1–Sep 24

Cash on hand: $4.1M vs $17.3M

Accounts shown: Gina Hinojosa candidate account; Texans for Greg Abbott committee (separate candidate account excluded).

Texas Ethics Commission (Hinojosa) (opens in new tab)Texas Ethics Commission (Abbott) (opens in new tab)

More November matchups

Democratic nominee versus Republican nominee. Ratings are from independent election analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) where available, and Texas's partisan voting history otherwise. Not a TexPolls forecast.
All 25 races

Competitive

4· Tossup and lean races
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez
Republican: Eric Flores
US House · TX-34 · Federal · Tossup · 1 poll: 45 to 42
Democrat: Bobby Pulido
Republican: Monica De La Cruz
US House · TX-15 · Federal · Lean R · 1 poll: 50 to 45
Democrat: Henry Cuellar
Republican: Tano Tijerina
US House · TX-28 · Federal · Lean D · 1 poll: 45 to 34
Democrat: Johnny Garcia
Republican: Carlos De La Cruz
US House · TX-35 · Federal · Lean R

Likely

6· Favored, not yet certain
Democrat: Clayton Tucker
Republican: Nate Sheets
Agriculture Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Nathan Johnson
Republican: Mayes Middleton
Attorney General · Statewide · Likely R · 4-poll avg: 43 to 46
Democrat: Sarah Eckhardt
Republican: Don Huffines
Comptroller · Statewide · Likely R* · 1 poll: 39 to 46
Democrat: Vikki Goodwin
Republican: Dan Patrick
Lt. Governor · Statewide · Likely R* · 2-poll avg: 44 to 47
Democrat: Jon Rosenthal
Republican: Bo French
Railroad Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R* · 1 poll: 41 to 44
Democrat: Katy Padilla Stout
Republican: Brandon Herrera
US House · TX-23 · Federal · Likely R

Based on Texas's partisan voting history, not a rating from an independent election analyst. No major analyst (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) rates Texas down-ballot statewide races. Methodology

How Texas Has Voted

254 counties, one history

Four views of Texas by county: the 2018 Senate race, the 2024 presidential baseline, and how Paxton and Talarico won their nominations. Switch views below. Past results, not a forecast. County-level November results replace these on election night.
Full turnout data

County pages: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis and 15 more

How competitive is the November ballot?

Democrats favored in 4 races2 tossupsRepublicans favored in 19 races

25 selected races tracked by TexPolls

Safe D · 3Lean D · 1Tossup · 2Lean R · 3Likely R · 6Safe R · 10
Voting Calendar

Key dates to November 3

19M registered · deadline Oct 5Full election calendar
Passed
Oct 5
Register to vote
Last day to register
Check your registration (opens in new tab)
Early voting
Oct 19
Early voting starts
In-person early voting
Find your polling place (opens in new tab)
Mail ballot
Oct 23
Mail ballot request due
Application must arrive
Vote by mail (opens in new tab)
Early voting
Oct 30
Early voting ends
Last early-voting day
Election Day
Nov 3
Election Day
Polls open 7am to 7pm
Official voter resourcesRegister to vote (opens in new tab)Check your registration (opens in new tab)Voter ID requirements (opens in new tab)Vote by mail (opens in new tab)Find your polling place (opens in new tab)

Common questions about November 3

Who is running against Ken Paxton in 2026?

Democratic state representative James Talarico of Austin is running against Ken Paxton for John Cornyn's U.S. Senate seat. Talarico won the March 3 primary outright with 52.5%; Paxton defeated Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26 runoff. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the general-election race Toss Up; Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican.

Who is running for Governor of Texas in 2026?

Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, governor since 2015, faces Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa of Austin in the November 3, 2026 general election.

Who is running against Dan Patrick in 2026?

Democratic state representative Vikki Goodwin of Austin is running against Dan Patrick for lieutenant governor. Goodwin won the May 26, 2026 Democratic runoff and faces Patrick, the Republican incumbent since 2015, on November 3.

Who is running for Texas Attorney General in 2026?

Republican state senator Mayes Middleton faces Democratic state senator Nathan Johnson in the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat is open because Ken Paxton ran for U.S. Senate instead of seeking re-election.

When is the 2026 Texas general election?

The Texas general election is November 3, 2026. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

What is the voter registration deadline in Texas for the 2026 election?

October 5, 2026 is the last day to register to vote in the November 3, 2026 Texas general election.

When is early voting in Texas in 2026?

Early voting in person runs October 19, 2026 through October 30, 2026 for the November 3, 2026 Texas general election.

When is the deadline to apply for a mail ballot in Texas in 2026?

Applications to vote by mail must be received by October 23, 2026. A postmark by that date is not enough; the application has to arrive.

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