Methodology
How this dashboard collects, validates, and presents election data. Every number is traceable to a public source, no reweighting, no modeling, no editorializing.
Polling Data
Inclusion Criteria
Included Pollsters
Any pollster meeting the criteria above is eligible for inclusion. The table lists every pollster whose Texas surveys appear on the site. Partisan-aligned or sponsor-commissioned surveys are included only with the sponsor disclosed, and they never anchor the marquee matchup number shown elsewhere on the site. The table grows as new surveys qualify.
| Pollster | Type | Method | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| UT Texas Politics Project | Academic | Online panel (YouGov) | n=1,300 |
| UH Hobby School of Public Affairs | Academic | Online panel | n=1,500 |
| Emerson College Polling | Academic | Mixed-mode (online + text) | n=1,000 |
| UT Tyler | Academic | Mixed-mode (phone + online panel) | n=1,117 |
| New York Times / Siena College | Newsroom | Live phone + online | n=656 (LV) |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Private (disclosed) | Conducted with Lake Research Partners | n=781–1,865 (LV) |
| Peak Insights | Private (disclosed) | Not disclosed | n=800 (LV) |
UT Texas Politics Project: Gold standard for Texas statewide polling. Most recent Texas wave: June 2026, the first clean post-runoff read of the November matchups.
UH Hobby School of Public Affairs: Most recent Texas poll: May 2026. Strong Texas-specific methodology with cross-tabulations.
Emerson College Polling: Texas polls in January and February 2026; the January wave tested six Senate general-election matchup scenarios.
UT Tyler: Center for Opinion Research. Its February 2026 wave (phone interviews via ProMark Research plus a Dynata online panel, MOE ±3.4) covered the primary matchups.
New York Times / Siena College: FiveThirtyEight's top-rated pollster (3 stars, 2024 cycle). First independent likely-voter poll of the November Senate race (June 2026, tied 47-47).
Texas Public Opinion Research: Quarterly Texas project directed by Luke Warford, a Democratic strategist, run with Lake Research Partners. Its surveys appear with that alignment disclosed and never anchor the marquee matchup number.
Peak Insights: Republican-client firm. One Senate runoff poll included, commissioned by the pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority; shown with the sponsor disclosed and kept out of the marquee matchup number.
Display Rules
Multi-pollster races: When multiple pollsters cover the same race, all entries are stored (newest first). The dashboard displays the most recent poll per candidate and attributes all contributing pollsters.
Undecided voters: Undecided/unsure percentages are not displayed in charts, but they are reported in the notes on each poll where the pollster published them.
Margin of error: Displayed for general election matchups when available. It was not shown on the primary horse-race bars, to avoid visual clutter.
Runoff Watch (primary season only): During the primary, a "Runoff Watch" badge appeared when no candidate polled above 50%, the threshold required to win outright under Texas rules (50%+1). Both the March primary and the May 26 runoffs are decided, so the badge no longer appears.
What we don't do
- No poll aggregation or averaging, each poll is shown as-reported
- No reweighting or modeling, we display raw results, not adjusted numbers
- No predictions or forecasts, the data speaks for itself
Early Voting Data
Early voting totals come from the Texas Secretary of State daily cumulative reports, cross-referenced with county-level reporting from outlets like the Texas Tribune, KSAT, and KERA.
Party breakdown: Texas has open primaries: voters choose a party ballot on Election Day or during early voting. The Democratic and Republican totals reflect which party's ballot a voter selected, not their registration.
2022 comparison: Same-day comparisons use cumulative totals from the equivalent day of the 2022 primary early voting period. This controls for the ramp-up pattern where turnout accelerates in the final days.
County data: All 254 Texas counties have verified party-by-party early voting data from the TX Secretary of State's Early Voting Reports (EVR) system. Counties with 2026 data are shown with green overlay on the county map.
County Map
The interactive choropleth map shows all 254 Texas counties. Boundary data comes from the US Atlas project (10m resolution), filtered to Texas counties and arc-pruned for performance (56KB).
Color encoding: All 254 counties have an amber baseline showing 2022 primary turnout (log-scaled to prevent large counties from dominating the scale). Counties with 2026 early voting data overlay a gold tint proportional to their current turnout.
Historical data: 2022 primary county totals come from the Texas Capitol Data Portal, specifically the Governor's race results by county (all 254 counties, both parties combined).
Election Results
Official results come from the Texas Secretary of State. Results are classified by reporting status:
Votes still being counted. Leading candidates are labeled “leading,” not “winning”, following AP style.
Race has been called by major outlets. Winner is marked with a checkmark.
All votes counted and certified. Official TX SOS numbers.
Runoff threshold: Texas primaries require 50%+1 of votes to win outright. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the top two advance to a runoff election. Candidates are marked as “Advanced to Runoff” or “Eliminated” accordingly.
Historical runoff turnout: We maintain a structured dataset of Texas primary runoff totals from 2012 onward at /data/historical/runoffs.json. Each cycle carries total ballots, registered voters, percent turnout, and the marquee race, sourced primarily from the Texas Secretary of State's historical turnout tables.
Data Processing
All data flows through a simple pipeline: public sources are collected, validated against official records, converted to structured JSON, and committed to the repository. Vercel auto-deploys on each push.
Update frequency: During the early voting period, data was updated daily from TX SOS cumulative reports. Polling data was added as new polls were released. Results are updated as returns come in and races are called.
Data freshness: Every data file carries a lastUpdated timestamp. The most recent timestamp across all files is shown in the dashboard footer and stats strip, so readers always know how current the data is.
Editorial Independence
This dashboard is an independent project, not affiliated with any political party, campaign, government agency, or news organization. We present data as-reported from public sources without editorial commentary, predictions, or endorsements.