Methodology
How this dashboard collects, validates, and presents election data. Every number is traceable to a public source, no reweighting, no modeling, no editorializing.
Polling Data
Inclusion Criteria
Included Pollsters
Any pollster meeting the criteria above is eligible for inclusion. The table lists every pollster whose Texas surveys appear on the site. Partisan-aligned or campaign-sponsored surveys are included only with the sponsor disclosed, and they never anchor the marquee matchup number shown elsewhere on the site. The table grows as new surveys qualify.
| Pollster | Type | Method | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| UT Texas Politics Project | academic | Online panel (YouGov) | n=1,300 |
| UH Hobby School of Public Affairs | academic | Online panel | n=1,500 |
| Emerson College | academic | Mixed-mode (online + text) | n=1,000 |
| UT Tyler | academic | Mixed-mode (phone via ProMark Research + Dynata online panel) | n=1,117 |
| New York Times / Siena College | newsroom | Live phone + online | n=656 (LV) |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | private (disclosed) | Conducted with Lake Research Partners | n=781-1,865 (LV) |
| Peak Insights | private (disclosed) | Not disclosed | n=800 (LV) |
| Texas Pulse / ReconMR | academic consortium | Dual-frame phone (landline + cell) with text-to-web, L2 voter-file sample, weighted incl. design effects | n=619 (LV) |
| Texas Southern University | academic | SMS-to-web, likely-voter screen | n=1,200 (LV) |
| Fox News | Newsroom | Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research; live phone + text-to-web | n=1,006 (RV), July 2026 |
| Normington Petts | Private (disclosed) | See linked release; disclosure limitations noted with the poll | n=500 (LV), July 2026 |
| ReconMR / Siena Research Institute | Research partnership | Voter-file sample; live phone + text-to-web | n=614 (LV), September 2026 |
| AARP / Fabrizio Ward + Impact Research | Nonpartisan sponsor; bipartisan polling team | Voter-list sample; live phone + SMS-to-web | n=895 (LV), August 30-September 1 |
| N+ Univision / YouGov | Newsroom | Online nonprobability panel; matched propensity-score design | n=1,000 (RV), August-September 2026 |
UT Texas Politics Project: Texas statewide polling by UT Austin with published questionnaires and cross-tabulations. Registered-voter waves appear in the table but not the likely-voter headline.
UH Hobby School of Public Affairs: January 2026 poll. Strong Texas-specific methodology. Cross-tabulations available
Emerson College: Texas statewide polling. Each stored wave identifies its sponsor, field dates, voter screen, and reported uncertainty.
UT Tyler: Center for Opinion Research. February 2026 poll (Feb 13-22, MOE ±3.4). Covers Senate, Governor, AG for both parties plus general matchups. Only poll showing Cornyn leading Paxton in Senate R primary
New York Times / Siena College: FiveThirtyEight's top-rated pollster (3 stars, 2024 cycle). First independent likely-voter poll of the November Senate race (June 2026, tied 47-47)
Texas Public Opinion Research: Quarterly Texas project directed by Luke Warford, a Democratic strategist, run with Lake Research Partners. Surveys appear with that alignment disclosed and never anchor the marquee matchup number
Peak Insights: Republican-client firm. One Senate runoff poll included, commissioned by the pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority; shown with the sponsor disclosed and kept out of the marquee matchup number
Texas Pulse / ReconMR: Texas A&M Bush School poll run by ReconMR (AAPOR code signatory). Included from the July 27-30 wave: n=619 LV, MOE ±4.7 on core questions, weighting and design effects disclosed. The June wave was held out because its published topline was revised after release; the July wave's published figures matched the archived crosstabs.
Texas Southern University: Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, coauthored by Rice's Mark P. Jones. July 27-30 wave covered all seven statewide executive and Senate matchups (MOE ±2.83). Field dates, mode, n, MOE and LV screen are disclosed; the sampling frame and weighting variables are not, which is noted inline wherever its numbers appear.
Fox News: The July 23-27 registered-voter survey appears on the Senate and Governor pages. RV polls do not enter the LV headline average.
Normington Petts: TX-15 survey sponsored by House Majority PAC. Displayed with the sponsor disclosed and excluded from headline averages.
ReconMR / Siena Research Institute: September 8-11 wave covers Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. Published MOE ±4.3 includes design effects. Separate from the earlier Texas Pulse releases.
AARP / Fabrizio Ward + Impact Research: Published toplines incorporate a forced follow-up among undecided voters. Displayed separately and excluded from headline averages pending ballot-comparability review.
N+ Univision / YouGov: Registered-voter survey with a reported equivalent margin of error. Displayed separately and excluded from the LV headline average.
Display Rules
Multi-pollster races: Yes. For each race, the headline is a simple, equally weighted average of the stored independent likely-voter polls dated on or after May 26, 2026 that name the current Democratic and Republican nominees and have not been explicitly held out. We average each nominee's reported percentage and round to a whole number, without redistributing undecided or other-candidate support. There is no time window or recency weighting within that post-runoff set. One qualifying poll is labeled as one poll; none means no polling headline. This is a polling summary, not a forecast. Two-way polls and polls naming additional candidates can both qualify when they test the same major-party nominees. Those ballot designs can affect the results, so each poll's ballot is disclosed. Different major-party nominee pairings are excluded. The two July Lieutenant Governor polls remain explicitly held out pending a separate comparability review; adding a new poll does not automatically reverse that decision.
Undecided voters: General-election tables show the published undecided share when explicitly recorded. A dash means it has not been recorded; we do not infer it by subtracting the major-party percentages from 100. Other-candidate support stays separate.
Margin of error: Displayed for general election matchups when available. It was not shown on the primary horse-race bars, to avoid visual clutter.
Runoff Watch (primary season only): During the primary, a "Runoff Watch" badge appeared when no candidate polled above 50%, the threshold required to win outright under Texas rules (50%+1). Both the March primary and the May 26 runoffs are decided, so the badge no longer appears.
What we don't do
- No weighting, house-effect adjustments, or trend models: the only math is the simple average described above, and every poll behind it is shown as-reported
- No blending of different major-party nominee pairings, and no averaging of a single poll
- No predictions or forecasts, the data speaks for itself
Early Voting Data
Early voting totals come from the Texas Secretary of State daily cumulative reports, cross-referenced with county-level reporting from outlets like the Texas Tribune, KSAT, and KERA.
Party breakdown: Texas has open primaries: voters choose a party ballot on Election Day or during early voting. The Democratic and Republican totals reflect which party's ballot a voter selected, not their registration.
2022 comparison: Statewide day-by-day comparisons use cumulative totals from the equivalent day of the 2022 primary early voting period. This controls for the ramp-up pattern where turnout accelerates in the final days. County comparisons use the full 2022 primary, not 2022 early voting; their labels identify those different periods.
County data: All 254 Texas counties have verified party-by-party early voting data from the TX Secretary of State's Early Voting Reports (EVR) system. Counties with 2026 data are shown with green overlay on the county map.
County Map
The interactive choropleth map shows all 254 Texas counties. Boundary data comes from the US Atlas project (10m resolution), filtered to Texas counties and arc-pruned for performance (56KB).
Color encoding: All 254 counties have an amber baseline showing 2022 primary turnout (log-scaled to prevent large counties from dominating the scale). Counties with 2026 early voting data overlay a gold tint proportional to their current turnout.
Historical data: 2022 primary county totals come from the Texas Capitol Data Portal, specifically the Governor's race results by county (all 254 counties, both parties combined).
Election Results
Official results come from the Texas Secretary of State. Results are classified by reporting status:
Votes still being counted. Leading candidates are labeled “leading,” not “winning”, following AP style.
Race has been called by major outlets. Winner is marked with a checkmark.
All votes counted and certified. Official TX SOS numbers.
Runoff threshold: Texas primaries require 50%+1 of votes to win outright. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the top two advance to a runoff election. Candidates are marked as “Advanced to Runoff” or “Eliminated” accordingly.
Historical runoff turnout: We maintain a structured dataset of Texas primary runoff totals from 2012 onward at /data/historical/runoffs.json. Each cycle carries total ballots, registered voters, percent turnout, and the marquee race, sourced primarily from the Texas Secretary of State's historical turnout tables.
Data Processing
All data flows through a simple pipeline: public sources are collected, validated against official records, converted to structured JSON, and committed to the repository. Vercel auto-deploys on each push.
Update frequency: During the early voting period, data was updated daily from TX SOS cumulative reports. Polling data was added as new polls were released. Results are updated as returns come in and races are called.
Data freshness: Every data file carries a lastUpdated timestamp. The most recent timestamp across all files is shown in the dashboard footer and stats strip, so readers always know how current the data is.
Editorial Independence
This dashboard is an independent project, not affiliated with any political party, campaign, government agency, or news organization. We present data as-reported from public sources without editorial commentary, predictions, or endorsements.
Methodology questions
- How does TexPolls select which polls to include?
- We display sourced polls with their field dates, voter screen, sample, method, uncertainty, and sponsor when disclosed. Our review targets are at least 500 respondents statewide or 400 in a district, a public source URL, and disclosed methodology. Historical polls remain available. Missing disclosures are noted; inclusion in the table does not mean eligibility for the headline average. Campaign- and political-operative-sponsored polls can appear with their sponsor disclosed, but are excluded from headline averages. Newsroom and nonpartisan research sponsors do not by themselves disqualify a poll.
- How is Texas early voting data collected?
- Early voting totals come from the Texas Secretary of State daily cumulative reports, covering all 254 Texas counties with party-by-party breakdowns. Statewide day-by-day comparisons use the corresponding early-voting day in 2022. County comparisons use the full 2022 primary and are labeled separately; they do not measure the change in early voting.
- How are Texas election results reported on TexPolls?
- Official results come from the Texas Secretary of State. Results are classified as Partial (leaders labeled 'leading' per AP style), Called (winner marked), or Final (certified). Texas primaries require 50%+1 to win; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff.
- Does TexPolls average or weight polls?
- Yes. For each race, the headline is a simple, equally weighted average of the stored independent likely-voter polls dated on or after May 26, 2026 that name the current Democratic and Republican nominees and have not been explicitly held out. We average each nominee's reported percentage and round to a whole number, without redistributing undecided or other-candidate support. There is no time window or recency weighting within that post-runoff set. One qualifying poll is labeled as one poll; none means no polling headline. This is a polling summary, not a forecast. Two-way polls and polls naming additional candidates can both qualify when they test the same major-party nominees. Those ballot designs can affect the results, so each poll's ballot is disclosed. Different major-party nominee pairings are excluded. The two July Lieutenant Governor polls remain explicitly held out pending a separate comparability review; adding a new poll does not automatically reverse that decision.