Agriculture Commissioner

Statewide

Nate Sheets upset three-term incumbent Sid Miller, winning the Republican primary with 52.7%. Democrat Clayton Tucker ran unopposed.

Incumbent: Sid Miller(R)· not running for this seat

Primary, Mar 3, 2026GOP runoff likely

Heads the Texas Department of Agriculture, administers school nutrition programs feeding 5.4 million students, regulates pesticides and weights and measures.

Agriculture Commissioner

Primary Results

Called · 100% reporting

Republican Primary

Nate Sheets wins

Nate Sheets

52.7%

1,045,330 votes

Sid Miller(i)

47.3%

939,590 votes

Democratic Primary

Clayton Tucker wins

Clayton Tucker

100.0%

1,928,300 votes

Updated Mar 21, 9:56 PM CT·TX SOS·Called by AP

Polls vs. Results

Republican Primary

Biggest miss: Nate Sheets, polls were off by 34.7 points

Source:UH Hobby School of Public Affairs, TX Secretary of State

Prediction vs. reality, poll predictions compared to actual results
Candidate	Party	Poll prediction (%)	Actual result (%)	Difference	Winner
Nate Sheets	Republican	18%	52.7%	+34.7	Winner
Sid Miller	Republican	48%	47.3%	-0.7

November General Election

Nov 3, 2026

Rated Likely RepublicanTexPolls, based on structural partisan lean

No major handicapper rates Texas down-ballot statewide races. Nate Sheets (R), who unseated three-term incumbent Sid Miller in the primary, faces Clayton Tucker (D). No Democrat has won any statewide Texas office since 1994. The rating reflects structural lean, not a forecast.

TexPolls, based on structural partisan lean