Attorney General

254 Labs / YouGov Blue, Oct. 26, 2026

Fielded October 21-26, 2026 by YouGov Blue 'on behalf of 254 Labs'; released October 28. 1,000 Texas registered voters interviewed online and by text-to-web, quota-sampled, then weighted to likely-voter targets that 254 Labs supplied (including an early-vote turnout benchmark); the release headlines the results as likely voters, but no likely-voter count is published. Margin of error about 4.6 points. Respondents who had already voted were asked how they voted; undecided respondents were asked which way they lean and the lean answers are included in the totals. The release publishes no question wording, no first-choice result, and full crosstabs are subscriber-only. Who paid for the poll is not disclosed; listed as political because 254 Labs describes itself as a Texas political research and analytics organization that serves 'mission-aligned subscribers,' not because a payer was shown. Shown for reference and left out of the headline average.

Texas Southern University, Oct. 25, 2026

Fielded October 21-25, 2026; released October 29. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at TSU reports a probability-based sample of 2,000 likely voters, +/-2.19-point margin of error, and a two-part likely-voter screen supplemented by past election participation. A random sample of registered voters was contacted by SMS and directed to an online survey in English or Spanish; weighted by multidimensional calibration on demographic, historical electoral, and geographic benchmarks. A little more than one-third of respondents had already voted, and the report calls the result vote intention. The report names no outside sponsor, publishes no question wording, and describes no leaned follow-up. Libertarian Tom Oxford 2%, unsure 4%.

Texas Public Opinion Research, Oct. 18, 2026

Fielded October 15-18, 2026, via an online panel; n=969 likely voters, margin of error ±3.9 points; weighted by gender, race, age, education, income, geography, and 2024 vote recall. Shown with leaners (Q38, "Intermediate Push," after undecided respondents were asked which candidate they lean toward). First-choice result (Q36): Middleton 45%, Johnson 43%, undecided 11%. Libertarian Tom Oxford 1% on the first choice and 2% with leaners; would not vote in that race shown as "-" in the topline. Still not sure after the lean question: 5%. TPOR's release headlines a "Final Push" result that asks remaining undecided respondents a second time and leaves none undecided; that forced result is not used. TPOR describes itself as a nonpartisan polling initiative and names no external commissioner. The site's copyright line names Luke Warford, whom the Texas Tribune (June 6, 2024) describes as the Texas Democratic Party's former chief strategy officer. This topline's page footer reads "Prepared by Slingshot Strategies"; September's read "Prepared by Texas Public Opinion Research."

University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs, Oct. 14, 2026

Fielded Oct. 10 to 14, 2026 among 2,000 Texas likely voters contacted by SMS text and directed to an online survey, in English or Spanish. It was weighted by multidimensional calibration on demographic, historical electoral, and geographic benchmarks. The margin of error is ±2.19 points. The report and its Oct. 19 release publish no question wording and no separate questionnaire or topline document (as of Oct. 19, 2026, the Hobby School's Texas 2026 page links only this report, which prints the topline results). The report prints an undecided share and describes no leaner follow-up, the same disclosure standard as other polls in the average. No outside sponsor is named. Released Oct. 19, 2026. Libertarian Tom Oxford 3%, undecided 8%.

UT Texas Politics Project, Oct. 5, 2026

University of Texas / Texas Politics Project in-house poll (no outside sponsor), fielded Sept. 25 to Oct. 5, 2026. YouGov interviewed 1,253 Texas registered voters online and matched them to 1,200, weighted by propensity score and post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote, gender, age, race, and education. Likely voters (weighted base 861, 905 unweighted respondents) report the published ±3.34-point margin. Tom Oxford (Libertarian) 1%, someone else 3%, not sure 0%. UT's published ballot folds in a forced follow-up ("If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?") among respondents who first said they didn't know, and the topline does not print the initial ballot. The initial ballot, computed from UT's posted microdata with its own likely-voter flag and weight, is Middleton 43.33%, Johnson 44.51%, not sure 10.26%. Counted in the average under the leaner rule adopted Oct. 21, 2026: when a poll publishes a result that includes leaners, the table and average use it.

Stratus Intelligence, Sept. 24, 2026

Stratus Intelligence memo, fielded September 22 to 24, 2026 among 865 likely voters; 81% SMS-to-web and 19% live phone; ±3.5 points. The memo names no sponsor and publishes neither question wording nor weighting. Breitbart (September 29) and the Wikipedia Senate-race listing report the poll was conducted for Texans for a Conservative Majority. Sponsored poll, shown with the sponsor disclosed and excluded from the headline average. Undecided 11%.

Texas Public Opinion Research, Sept. 22, 2026

Fielded September 19-22, 2026, via an online panel; n=1,007 likely voters, margin of error ±3.6 points; weighted by gender, age, race, education, 2024 vote recall, and geography. Initial ballot: Libertarian Tom Oxford 2%, would not vote 1%, undecided 15%. Shown with leaners, from the follow-up asked of undecided respondents. First-choice result: Middleton 43%, Johnson 40%. TPOR describes itself as a nonpartisan polling initiative and names no external commissioner. The site's copyright line names Luke Warford, whom the Texas Tribune (June 6, 2024) describes as the Texas Democratic Party's former chief strategy officer.

Texas Southern University, Sept. 19, 2026

Fielded September 15-19, 2026. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at TSU reports a probability-based sample of 1,800 likely voters, ±2.31-point margin of error, contacted by SMS and directed to an online survey in English or Spanish, with a two-part likely-voter screen supplemented by past election participation. The report does not name an outside sponsor. Three-way ballot naming Libertarian Tom Oxford (2%); 9% unsure; no leaned follow-up described. The report describes its sampling and survey method but not its weighting; our transparency rule requires a published methodology, sample size, margin of error, and public source, and this report meets it, as TSU’s statewide polls do.

ReconMR / Siena Research Institute, Sept. 11, 2026

Fielded September 8-11, 2026. ReconMR/Siena's nonpartisan Texas Poll. Prompt named only Middleton and Johnson; 2% chose someone else, 1% would not vote, and 8% did not know or refused. Tom Oxford was an unprompted open-end response rounded to 0%. Mixed live telephone and text-to-web voter-file sample; telephone interviews in English and Spanish. MOE includes design effects.

Texas Public Opinion Research, Aug. 24, 2026

TPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist. Ballot named Libertarian Tom Oxford at 1% and independent Omer Khwaja at 1%. Fielded before the Aug. 28 ballot certification. The ballot test named independent Omer Khwaja, who did not qualify for the November ballot.

UT Texas Politics Project, Aug. 13, 2026

Ballot named Libertarian Tom Oxford at 3%. Registered voters, not likely voters.

Texas Southern University, July 30, 2026

Three-way ballot incl. Tom Oxford (L) 3%, with 10% undecided. 77% of likely voters did not know enough about Johnson to rate him. Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center. The poll used SMS-to-web, was fielded July 27 to 30, and was coauthored by Rice's Mark P. Jones. Sampling frame and weighting variables are not disclosed in the report.

Texas Pulse / ReconMR, July 30, 2026

Texas A&M Bush School consortium, fielded July 27 to 30, released Aug. 7. MOE is the core-question figure (n=619). The ballot is two-way. Middleton led 45-40 in the June wave.

Texas Public Opinion Research, July 17, 2026

TPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist; conducted with Lake Research Partners. 18% undecided.