US Senate
FederalKen Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D) for US Senate on November 3, 2026.
Ken Paxton faces James Talarico on November 3. Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Aug 20, 2026, and Sabato's Crystal Ball followed on Aug 26; Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican. Paxton took the nomination by defeating four-term incumbent John Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26 runoff; Talarico won the Democratic primary outright with 52.5% over Crockett.
One of two Texas seats in the U.S. Senate, votes on federal legislation, confirms judges and cabinet members, ratifies treaties.
November General Election
Nov 3, 2026Cook Political Report rates this a Toss Up, moved from Lean Republican on Aug 20, 2026, with editor Jessica Taylor calling it "an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats" (via CNN). Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it to Toss-up on Aug 26, 2026, and Inside Elections moved it from Likely to Lean Republican, where it still stood on Sept 3. The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023 (the Senate acquitted him), and he won the May 26 runoff over four-term incumbent John Cornyn. In September polling, Emerson/Nexstar (September 12-14) reported Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%; ReconMR/Siena (September 8-11) reported Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%. Both surveyed likely voters. The polling table includes their original sources, sample details, and uncertainty measures. Paxton has not committed to any of the three televised debates Talarico accepted. A joint ProPublica/Texas Tribune investigation in July reported that Paxton had voted for years from a Collin County address where he no longer appears to live; a follow-up found Talarico's own registration lagged a move, and an ethics lawyer quoted by the Tribune doubted either met the legal standard for fraud. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and Republicans carried the last comparable race, the 2022 governor's race, by about 11 points.
The November ballot, explained
Texas race coverage by email, only when something changes before Nov 3.
Runoff result
March primary result
Primary Results
John Cornyn(i)
Ken Paxton
Wesley Hunt
Winner.James TalaricoPolls vs. Results
Republican Primary
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Party | Poll prediction (%) | Actual result (%) | Difference | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | Republican | 36% | 41.9% | +5.9 | |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | 40% | 40.7% | +0.7 | |
| Wesley Hunt | Republican | 17% | 13.5% | -3.5 | |
| Sara Canady | Republican | No poll data | 1.2% | N/A | |
| Anna Bender | Republican | No poll data | 1.1% | N/A | |
| James Talarico | Democratic | 52% | 52.5% | +0.5 | Winner |
| Jasmine Crockett | Democratic | 47% | 46.2% | -0.8 |
Republican nominee
Texas Attorney General
Democratic nominee
State Representative, HD-50
Also on the ballot
- Ted BrownLibertarian
Certified for the November 3 ballot by the Texas Secretary of State, August 28, 2026.
US Senate
GOP Runoff
Runoff Watch| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| John Cornyn | 47% |
| Ken Paxton | 46% |
Primary Polls
GOP Primary
Runoff Watch| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 40% |
| John Cornyn | 36% |
| Wesley Hunt | 17% |
Dem Primary
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| James Talarico | 52% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 47% |
General Election Polling
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Paxton | Talarico | Undec. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeFielded September 12-14, 2026. Sponsored by Nexstar Media. Libertarian Ted Brown received 2%; 4% were undecided. The reported ±3.0 figure is a 95% credibility interval, not a traditional sampling margin of error. MMS text-to-web from a probability-based voter panel plus PureSpectrum; weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region; English only. | Sep 2026 | 1,000 LV±3 credibility interval | 46% | 47% | 4% | Tied |
| ReconMR / Siena Research InstituteFielded September 8-11, 2026. ReconMR/Siena's nonpartisan Texas Poll. Prompt named only Paxton and Talarico; 3% chose someone else, 1% would not vote, and 4% did not know or refused. Mixed live telephone and text-to-web voter-file sample; telephone interviews in English and Spanish; weighted to voter-file and demographic targets. MOE includes design effects. | Sep 2026 | 614 LV±4.3 MOE | 43% | 49% | 4% | Talarico +6 |
| N+ Univision / YouGovFielded August 27-September 4, 2026. N+ Univision media survey conducted online by YouGov. Registered voters, so excluded from the likely-voter headline. The nonprobability survey reports an equivalent margin of error for a matched propensity-score design, not a traditional sampling MOE. Crosstabs label this measure 'Combined - Recoded' and do not publish exact ballot wording or leaner treatment; 1% chose another candidate and 7% were undecided. | Sep 2026 | 1,000 RV±3.6 equivalent MOE | 43% | 48% | 7% | Talarico +5 |
| AARP / Fabrizio Ward + Impact ResearchFielded August 30-September 1, 2026. Commissioned by AARP and conducted by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. Published total includes a forced follow-up among initially undecided voters; the annotated questionnaire does not publish a clean, exact unallocated topline. Two-candidate prompt; 8% remained undecided after the follow-up. Live cell 40%, live landline 15%, and SMS-to-web 45%; English and Spanish; voter-list sample. Sampling error is unadjusted for design effects. Displayed separately and excluded from the headline average pending ballot-comparability review. | Sep 2026 | 895 LV±3.3 MOE | 44% | 48% | 8% | Talarico +4 |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist. Ballot named Libertarian Ted Brown at 1%. | Aug 2026 | 1,000 LV±3.3 MOE | 42% | 48% | — | Talarico +6 |
| UT Texas Politics ProjectBallot named Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%. Registered voters, not likely voters. | Aug 2026 | 1,200 RV±2.83 MOE | 39% | 42% | — | Talarico +3 |
| Emerson CollegeEmerson College Polling/Nexstar Media, fielded Aug 9-10. 5% undecided, 2% someone else. | Aug 2026 | 1,000 LV±3 MOE | 47% | 46% | — | Tied |
| Texas Southern UniversityThree-way ballot incl. Ted Brown (L) 2%; 6% undecided. Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center; SMS-to-web, fielded Jul 27-30, coauthored by Rice's Mark P. Jones. Sampling frame and weighting variables are not disclosed in the report. | Jul 2026 | 1,200 LV±2.83 MOE | 45% | 47% | — | Tied |
| Texas Pulse / ReconMRTexas A&M Bush School consortium, fielded Jul 27-30, released Aug 7. MOE is the core-question figure (n=619); two-way ballot. Talarico led 53-30 among independents. | Jul 2026 | 619 LV±4.7 MOE | 43% | 47% | — | Tied |
| Fox NewsBeacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), fielded Jul 23-27. Live interviewers on landlines and cellphones plus text-to-web, sampled from the statewide voter file. Registered voters, not likely voters. Both ballots are inside the margin of error. | Jul 2026 | 1,006 RV±3 MOE | 48% | 51% | — | Tied |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist; conducted with Lake Research Partners. 14% undecided. | Jul 2026 | 1,048 LV±3.4 MOE | 40% | 45% | — | Talarico +5 |
| New York Times / Siena CollegeIndependent, non-partisan. FiveThirtyEight's top-rated pollster (3 stars, 2024 cycle). Statistical tie among likely voters; Talarico +27 with independents. n=656, fielded June 19-27, published June 30. | Jun 2026 | 656 LV±4.5 MOE | 47% | 47% | — | Tied |
| UT Texas Politics ProjectFirst clean post-runoff, non-partisan read (fielded June 5-12 by YouGov). Registered voters; MOE is UT TPP's weight-adjusted figure (±2.83% raw). Also on the ballot: Ted Brown (L) 3%, undecided 10%. Statistical tie. | Jun 2026 | 1,200 RV±3.47 MOE | 43% | 42% | — | Tied |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchCommissioned by Luke Warford (2022 Democratic nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner) via Lake Research Partners. | May 2026 | 1,670 LV±2.5 MOE | 44% | 47% | — | Talarico +3 |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist; commissioner not disclosed. | Apr 2026 | 1,865 LV±2.5 MOE | 41% | 46% | — | Talarico +5 |
| UT Texas Politics ProjectLarge undecided / no-opinion share. | Apr 2026 | 1,200 RV±2.83 MOE | 34% | 42% | — | Talarico +8 |
| Emerson College | Jan 2026 | 1,165 RV±2.8 MOE | 46% | 46% | — | Tied |
Each row is one poll, shown as reported. Headline cards separately average eligible independent likely-voter polls; see the methodology page. “Tied” means the reported gap is within the poll's stated uncertainty, not that the candidates have equal support. An undecided share appears only when explicitly recorded from the source; a dash means it has not been recorded. Independently rounded categories may not sum to 100%. Likely-voter (LV) and registered-voter (RV) samples are not directly comparable.
Republican Primary · Poll Movement
Feb → Feb
| Candidate | Feb | Feb | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 35% | 40% | +5 |
| John Cornyn | 41% | 36% | -5 |
| Wesley Hunt | 15% | 17% | +2 |
Democratic Primary · Poll Movement
Feb → Feb
| Candidate | Feb | Feb | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 37% | 52% | +15 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 58% | 47% | -11 |
Campaign Finance
Dataset updated Sep 19, 2026FEC · Coverage through Jun 30, 2026
Raised $7.4M in first six weeks of 2026 alone, largest haul in Texas primary history. Combined Senate race ad spending topped $110M
FEC · Coverage through Jun 30, 2026
Joint fundraising committees add ~$4M+ in combined resources not reflected here. FEC Feb 11 filing showed lower principal committee totals ($5.5M raised), likely reflects committee restructuring; retaining higher figure which includes all prior receipts
FEC · Coverage through Jun 30, 2026
Spending exceeds fundraising, likely transferred from previous House campaign committee
| Candidate | Party | Total Raised | Total Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | Democratic | $68,555,930 | $47,007,775 | $21,548,155 |
| Jasmine Crockett | Democratic | $11,096,966 | $11,096,966 | $0 |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | $9,248,699 | $7,492,915 | $1,755,783 |
| John Cornyn | Republican | $8,604,234 | $12,184,397 | $542,120 |
| Wesley Hunt | Republican | $2,129,887 | $4,587,880 | $29,183 |
Prediction Markets
Market-implied probability of winning, based on contract prices.
Republican Primary
Market closedResolved winner: Ken Paxton
Resolved May 26: Paxton defeated Cornyn 64-36 in the GOP runoff, taking the nomination. Market closed at 100% Paxton.
Democratic Primary
Market closedResolved winner: James Talarico
Talarico won the primary outright with 52.45%, no runoff needed. Market resolved. Crockett eliminated despite Kamala Harris endorsement
General Election
Nov 3, 2026Paxton held 55.5c to 56.5c from mid-June through Jul 27, slipped to 53.5c on Jul 30 and 51.5c by Aug 7, then dropped under 50c on Aug 9 and has stayed there: a low of 47.5c on Aug 12-13, 49.5c on Aug 21, and 49.5c again on Sept 6. Talarico has been the narrow favorite on Polymarket since Aug 9, a first for this market, though the gap is now a single point. Range since the May 26 runoff: 47.5c to 61.5c.
Contract prices, not a TexPolls forecast. Resolves November 2026. Prices are each party's own yes contract, so they need not sum to 100. Combined volume across the two party markets is about $1.0M; prices can move on a few large trades.
| Party | Candidate | Source | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ken Paxton | Polymarket | 100% |
| Republican | John Cornyn | Polymarket | 0% |
| Republican | Ken Paxton | Kalshi | 100% |
| Republican | John Cornyn | Kalshi | 0% |
| Democratic | James Talarico | Polymarket | 100% |
Endorsement Tracker
Republican runoff endorsements
Ken Paxton(5)
Endorses Ken Paxton · May 18
Endorsed Paxton on Truth Social, calling him "a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas." Cited Paxton's support for ending the Senate filibuster and the SAVE Act, and faulted Cornyn for being late to back Trump's campaigns. Came the day after early voting began.
John Cornyn(3)
Endorses John Cornyn
Third-place March 3 finisher (~13%). Endorsement is the Trump-adjacent / Black-Houston voter signal that Cornyn carried into the runoff; Hunt-voter exit polling ran ~54-35 Paxton, so the endorsement matters more as institutional cover than vote-direction.
Frequently Asked
Who is running against Ken Paxton in 2026?
Democratic state representative James Talarico of Austin is running against Ken Paxton for John Cornyn's U.S. Senate seat. Talarico won the March 3 Democratic primary outright with 52.5%; Paxton defeated Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26 runoff. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race a Toss Up, Cook since Aug 20 and Sabato since Aug 26, 2026; Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican.
Who is running for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026?
Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, faces Democratic state representative James Talarico of Austin in the November 3, 2026 general election.
When is the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election?
The general election is November 3, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and early voting runs October 19 to 30.
How did Ken Paxton win the Republican nomination?
Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26, 2026 Republican primary runoff. Donald Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the vote.
What do polls show in the Paxton vs Talarico race?
In September polling, Emerson/Nexstar (September 12-14) reported Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%; ReconMR/Siena (September 8-11) reported Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%. Both surveyed likely voters. The polling table includes their original sources, sample details, and uncertainty measures. Headline cards average eligible independent likely-voter polls; registered-voter and explicitly excluded surveys remain visible separately.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?
Yes. Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Aug 20, 2026, and Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it to Toss-up on Aug 26. Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
How much have the Senate candidates raised?
Through June 30, Talarico had raised $68.6M to Paxton's $9.2M, with $21.5M cash on hand to Paxton's $1.8M, per FEC filings. Talarico raised $28M of that in the second quarter alone. Outside money so far tilts toward Talarico: the super PAC Moment of Truth has told donors it plans to spend up to $62M, and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman gave $10M in July to Lone Star Rising, a second pro-Talarico PAC. On the Republican side, the Supreme Court's July NRSC v. FEC ruling lifted limits on coordinated party spending, giving the national GOP new room to spend on Paxton's behalf, though no comparable spending totals have been disclosed yet. A fundraising lead does not guarantee a Texas win: Beto O'Rourke out-raised Ted Cruz more than two-to-one in 2018 and still lost.
Where can I find Texas 2026 Senate results?
TexPolls publishes results from the Texas Secretary of State Election Night Returns API as votes are counted, starting when polls close on November 3, 2026.
Who else is on the ballot for US Senate in 2026?
Beyond the Republican and Democratic nominees, Ted Brown is the Libertarian candidate. The full November 3 ballot was certified by the Texas Secretary of State on August 28, 2026.
Key Dates
Runoff date: May 26, 2026
Also on the November ballot
Abbott vs. Hinojosa for GovernorOther federal races
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