US Senate
FederalKen Paxton defeated John Cornyn 64-36 in the May 26 GOP runoff, taking the Republican Senate nomination. James Talarico won the Democratic primary outright (52.5% over Crockett). General election Nov 3.
Incumbent: John Cornyn(R)
One of two Texas seats in the U.S. Senate, votes on federal legislation, confirms judges and cabinet members, ratifies treaties.
Runoff result
March primary result
Primary Results
John Cornyn(i)
Ken Paxton
Wesley Hunt
Winner.James TalaricoPolls vs. Results
Republican Primary
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Party | Poll prediction (%) | Actual result (%) | Difference | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | Republican | 36% | 41.9% | +5.9 | |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | 40% | 40.7% | +0.7 | |
| Wesley Hunt | Republican | 17% | 13.5% | -3.5 | |
| Sara Canady | Republican | No poll data | 1.2% | N/A | |
| Anna Bender | Republican | No poll data | 1.1% | N/A | |
| James Talarico | Democratic | 52% | 52.5% | +0.5 | Winner |
| Jasmine Crockett | Democratic | 47% | 46.2% | -0.8 |
November General Election
Nov 3, 2026Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate this Lean Republican. The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023 (the Senate acquitted him), and he won the May 26 runoff over four-term incumbent John Cornyn. The most recent independent poll, from the New York Times and Siena College in late June, found the race tied at 47 percent among likely voters. Senior Republicans expect a close contest: on a July 8 Hannity radio broadcast, Sen. Ted Cruz said "the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race," while Gov. Greg Abbott, guest-hosting the show, responded that Talarico is "going to be very beatable once Texans get to know who he really is." The Texas Tribune reported in July that some Republicans who backed Cornyn are weighing Talarico or sitting out, though most have consolidated behind Paxton. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and Republicans carried the last comparable race, the 2022 governor's race, by about 11 points.
Republican Primary
Texas Attorney General
U.S. Representative, TX-38
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Democratic Primary
U.S. Representative, TX-30
State Representative, HD-50
US Senate
GOP Runoff
Runoff Watch| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| John Cornyn | 47% |
| Ken Paxton | 46% |
Primary Polls
GOP Primary
Runoff Watch| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 40% |
| John Cornyn | 36% |
| Wesley Hunt | 17% |
Dem Primary
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| James Talarico | 52% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 47% |
General Election Polling
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Paxton | Talarico | Undec. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times / Siena CollegeIndependent, non-partisan. FiveThirtyEight's top-rated pollster (3 stars, 2024 cycle). Statistical tie among likely voters; Talarico +27 with independents. n=656, fielded June 19-27, published June 30. | Jun 2026 | 656 LV±4.5 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied |
| UT/Texas Politics ProjectFirst clean post-runoff, non-partisan read (fielded June 5-12 by YouGov). Registered voters; MOE is UT TPP's weight-adjusted figure (±2.83% raw). Also on the ballot: Ted Brown (L) 3%, undecided 10%. Statistical tie. | Jun 2026 | 1,200 RV±3.47 | 43% | 42% | 15% | Tied |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchCommissioned by Luke Warford (2022 Democratic nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner) via Lake Research Partners. | May 2026 | 1,670 LV±2.5 | 44% | 47% | 9% | Talarico +3 |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist; commissioner not disclosed. | Apr 2026 | 1,865 LV±2.5 | 41% | 46% | 13% | Talarico +5 |
| UT/Texas Politics ProjectLarge undecided / no-opinion share. | Apr 2026 | 1,200 RV±2.83 | 34% | 42% | 24% | Talarico +8 |
| Emerson College | Jan 2026 | 1,165 RV±2.8 | 46% | 46% | 8% | Tied |
Shown as reported. TexPolls applies no model, weighting, or averaging. Results within the margin of error are statistical ties and cannot determine a leader. Likely-voter (LV) and registered-voter (RV) samples are not directly comparable.
Republican Primary · Poll Movement
Feb → Feb
| Candidate | Feb | Feb | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 35% | 40% | +5 |
| John Cornyn | 41% | 36% | -5 |
| Wesley Hunt | 15% | 17% | +2 |
Democratic Primary · Poll Movement
Feb → Feb
| Candidate | Feb | Feb | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 37% | 52% | +15 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 58% | 47% | -11 |
Campaign Finance
FEC filings through 2026-07-19Raised $7.4M in first six weeks of 2026 alone, largest haul in Texas primary history. Combined Senate race ad spending topped $110M
Joint fundraising committees add ~$4M+ in combined resources not reflected here. FEC Feb 11 filing showed lower principal committee totals ($5.5M raised), likely reflects committee restructuring; retaining higher figure which includes all prior receipts
Spending exceeds fundraising, likely transferred from previous House campaign committee
| Candidate | Party | Total Raised | Total Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | Democratic | $68,555,930 | $47,007,775 | $21,548,155 |
| Jasmine Crockett | Democratic | $11,096,966 | $10,870,752 | $226,214 |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | $9,248,699 | $7,492,915 | $1,755,783 |
| John Cornyn | Republican | $8,604,234 | $12,184,397 | $542,120 |
| Wesley Hunt | Republican | $2,129,887 | $4,587,880 | $29,183 |
Prediction Markets
Market-implied probability of winning, based on contract prices.
Republican Primary
Market closedResolved winner: Ken Paxton
Resolved May 26: Paxton defeated Cornyn 64-36 in the GOP runoff, taking the nomination. Market closed at 100% Paxton.
Democratic Primary
Market closedResolved winner: James Talarico
Talarico won the primary outright with 52.45%, no runoff needed. Market resolved. Crockett eliminated despite Kamala Harris endorsement
General Election
Nov 3, 2026Remarkably stable: 56c on Jun 18, 55.5c on Jul 3, 56.5c on Jul 19. The market has not moved on the NYT/Siena 47-47 tie or on Talarico's $28.3M Q2 fundraising quarter.
Contract prices, not a TexPolls forecast. Resolves November 2026. Texas Senate volume is moderate (about $530K); prices can move on a few large trades.
| Party | Candidate | Source | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ken Paxton | Polymarket | 100% |
| Republican | John Cornyn | Polymarket | 0% |
| Republican | Ken Paxton | Kalshi | 100% |
| Republican | John Cornyn | Kalshi | 0% |
| Democratic | James Talarico | Polymarket | 100% |
Endorsement Tracker
Republican runoff endorsements
Ken Paxton(5)
Endorses Ken Paxton · May 18
Endorsed Paxton on Truth Social, calling him "a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas." Cited Paxton's support for ending the Senate filibuster and the SAVE Act, and faulted Cornyn for being late to back Trump's campaigns. Came the day after early voting began.
John Cornyn(3)
Endorses John Cornyn
Third-place March 3 finisher (~13%). Endorsement is the Trump-adjacent / Black-Houston voter signal that Cornyn carried into the runoff; Hunt-voter exit polling ran ~54-35 Paxton, so the endorsement matters more as institutional cover than vote-direction.
Frequently Asked
Who is running for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026?
Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, faces Democratic state representative James Talarico of Austin in the November 3, 2026 general election.
When is the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election?
The general election is November 3, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and early voting runs October 19 to 30.
How did Ken Paxton win the Republican nomination?
Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26, 2026 Republican primary runoff. Donald Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the vote.
What do polls show in the Paxton vs Talarico race?
The most recent independent survey, from the New York Times and Siena College in late June, found the race tied at 47 percent among likely voters. All recent surveys are shown in the polling table on this page, each with its pollster and any commissioner disclosed.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?
Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race Lean Republican as of mid-2026. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
How much have the Senate candidates raised?
Through June 30, Talarico had raised $68.6M to Paxton's $9.2M, with $21.5M cash on hand to Paxton's $1.8M, per FEC filings. Talarico raised $28M of that in the second quarter alone. Outside money so far tilts toward Talarico: the super PAC Moment of Truth has told donors it plans to spend up to $62M, and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman gave $10M in July to Lone Star Rising, a second pro-Talarico PAC. On the Republican side, the Supreme Court's July NRSC v. FEC ruling lifted limits on coordinated party spending, giving the national GOP new room to spend on Paxton's behalf, though no comparable spending totals have been disclosed yet. A fundraising lead does not guarantee a Texas win: Beto O'Rourke out-raised Ted Cruz more than two-to-one in 2018 and still lost.
Where can I find Texas 2026 Senate results?
TexPolls publishes results from the Texas Secretary of State Election Night Returns API as votes are counted, starting when polls close on November 3, 2026.
Key Dates
Runoff date: May 26, 2026
Other Runoff Races
The other 9 races on the May 26 ballot.
R Chip Roy vs Mayes Middleton·D Nathan Johnson vs Joe Jaworski
D Vikki Goodwin vs Marcos Velez
R James Wright vs Bo French
R Alison Fox vs Thomas Smith
D Christian Menefee vs Al Green
R Patrick David Gillespie vs John Sims·D Colin Allred vs Julie Johnson
R Alex Mealer vs Briscoe Cain
R John Lujan vs Carlos De La Cruz·D Maureen Galindo vs Johnny Garcia
R Ge'Nell Gary vs Lauren Peña
Also on the November ballot
Abbott vs. Hinojosa for GovernorOther federal races
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