US Senate

Federal

Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn 64-36 in the May 26 GOP runoff, taking the Republican Senate nomination. James Talarico won the Democratic primary outright (52.5% over Crockett). General election Nov 3.

Incumbent: John Cornyn(R)

Primary, Mar 3, 2026GOP runoff likely

One of two Texas seats in the U.S. Senate, votes on federal legislation, confirms judges and cabinet members, ratifies treaties.

Runoff result

US Senate

Primary Runoff

Called

Ken Paxton

63.8%

885,949 votes

John Cornyn(i)

36.2%

501,725 votes

Updated May 27, 10:33 PM CT·TX SOS·Called by CNN / NBC News

March primary result

US Senate

Primary Results

Called · 100% reporting

R runoff

D nominee set

Republican Primary

John Cornyn(i)

41.9%

907,416 votes

Advancing to runoff

Ken Paxton

40.7%

881,192 votes

Advancing to runoff

Wesley Hunt

13.5%

292,702 votes

Sara Canady

1.2%

26,355 votes

Anna Bender

1.1%

24,167 votes

Gulrez "Gus" Khan

0.7%

15,873 votes

John O. Adefope

0.4%

9,284 votes

Virgil John Bierschwale

0.4%

9,035 votes

Democratic Nominee · November

Decided

James Talarico

52.5%

1,212,945 votes

Updated Mar 15, 7:01 PM CT·TX SOS·Called by AP

Polls vs. Results

Republican Primary

Democratic Primary

Biggest miss: John Cornyn, polls were off by 5.9 points

Source:Emerson College, TX Secretary of State

Prediction vs. reality, poll predictions compared to actual results
Candidate	Party	Poll prediction (%)	Actual result (%)	Difference	Winner
John Cornyn	Republican	36%	41.9%	+5.9
Ken Paxton	Republican	40%	40.7%	+0.7
Wesley Hunt	Republican	17%	13.5%	-3.5
Sara Canady	Republican	No poll data	1.2%	N/A
Anna Bender	Republican	No poll data	1.1%	N/A
James Talarico	Democratic	52%	52.5%	+0.5	Winner
Jasmine Crockett	Democratic	47%	46.2%	-0.8

November General Election

Nov 3, 2026

Rated Lean RepublicanCook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate this Lean Republican. The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023 (the Senate acquitted him), and he won the runoff over four-term incumbent John Cornyn. Independent polling is thin, with no gold-standard pollster since April and most recent surveys commissioned by Democratic-aligned groups, each disclosed below. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and Republicans carried the last comparable race, the 2022 governor's race, by about 11 points.

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball

US Senate

GOP Runoff

Runoff Watch

John Cornyn

47%

Ken Paxton

46%

GOP Runoff polling
Candidate	Support
John Cornyn	47%
Ken Paxton	46%

Primary Polls

GOP Primary

Runoff Watch

Ken Paxton

40%

John Cornyn(i)

36%

Wesley Hunt

17%

GOP Primary polling
Candidate	Support
Ken Paxton	40%
John Cornyn	36%
Wesley Hunt	17%

Dem Primary

James Talarico

52%

Jasmine Crockett

47%

Dem Primary polling
Candidate	Support
James Talarico	52%
Jasmine Crockett	47%

General Election Polling

General election polls for Ken Paxton vs James Talarico, shown as reported
Pollster	Date	Sample	Paxton	Talarico	Undec.	Result
Texas Public Opinion ResearchCommissioned by Luke Warford (2022 Democratic nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner) via Lake Research Partners.	May 2026	1,670 LV±2.5	44%	47%	9%	Talarico +3
Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist; commissioner not disclosed.	Apr 2026	1,865 LV±2.5	41%	46%	13%	Talarico +5
UT/Texas Politics ProjectLarge undecided / no-opinion share.	Apr 2026	1,200 RV±2.83	34%	42%	24%	Talarico +8
Emerson College	Jan 2026	1,165 RV±2.8	46%	46%	8%	Tied

Shown as reported. TexPolls applies no model, weighting, or averaging. Results within the margin of error are statistical ties and cannot determine a leader. Likely-voter (LV) and registered-voter (RV) samples are not directly comparable.

Source:Peak Insights, UH Hobby School of Public Affairs, TX Public Opinion Research, Emerson College, UT Tyler, UT Texas Politics Project, UH Hobby School, Texas Public Opinion Research, UT/Texas Politics Project·Polls conducted Jan 2026–May 2026

Republican Primary · Poll Movement

Feb → Feb

Republican primary poll trend
Candidate	Feb	Feb	Change
Ken Paxton	35%	40%	+5
John Cornyn	41%	36%	-5
Wesley Hunt	15%	17%	+2

Source:UT Tyler, Emerson College

Democratic Primary · Poll Movement

Feb → Feb

Democratic primary poll trend
Candidate	Feb	Feb	Change
James Talarico	37%	52%	+15
Jasmine Crockett	58%	47%	-11

Source:UT Tyler, Emerson College

Campaign Finance

FEC filings through 2026-05-24

James Talarico$40.3M

Spent: $30.4MCash: $9.9MFEC filing

Raised $7.4M in first six weeks of 2026 alone, largest haul in Texas primary history. Combined Senate race ad spending topped $110M

Jasmine Crockett$11.1M

Spent: $10.5MCash: $633KFEC filing

John Cornyn$7.9M

Spent: $8.0MCash: $4.1MFEC filing

Joint fundraising committees add ~$4M+ in combined resources not reflected here. FEC Feb 11 filing showed lower principal committee totals ($5.5M raised), likely reflects committee restructuring; retaining higher figure which includes all prior receipts

Ken Paxton$7.6M

Spent: $5.3MCash: $2.3MFEC filing

Wesley Hunt$2.1M

Spent: $4.5MCash: $33KFEC filing

Spending exceeds fundraising, likely transferred from previous House campaign committee

Campaign finance data for candidates
Candidate	Party	Total Raised	Total Spent	Cash on Hand
James Talarico	Democratic	$40,284,109	$30,425,244	$9,858,865
Jasmine Crockett	Democratic	$11,092,295	$10,459,209	$633,086
John Cornyn	Republican	$7,917,429	$7,961,630	$4,078,081
Ken Paxton	Republican	$7,600,512	$5,257,561	$2,342,950
Wesley Hunt	Republican	$2,071,562	$4,526,166	$32,572

SourcesFEC / Texas Ethics Commission

Prediction Markets

Market-implied probability of winning, based on contract prices.

Republican Primary

Market closed

Resolved winner: Ken Paxton

Resolved May 26: Paxton defeated Cornyn 64-36 in the GOP runoff, taking the nomination. Market closed at 100% Paxton.

Polymarket Kalshi

Democratic Primary

Market closed

Resolved winner: James Talarico

Talarico won the primary outright with 52.45%, no runoff needed. Market resolved. Crockett eliminated despite Kamala Harris endorsement

Polymarket

General Election

Nov 3, 2026

Ken Paxton56%

James Talarico43%

Paxton's price has fallen from about 59% in early June, following a run of close polls.

Contract prices, not a TexPolls forecast. Resolves November 2026. Texas Senate volume is moderate (about $530K); prices can move on a few large trades.

Polymarket

Betting odds, not scientific polling·As of Jun 18, 2026

Prediction market odds for primary candidates
Party	Candidate	Source	Odds
Republican	Ken Paxton	Polymarket	100%
Republican	John Cornyn	Polymarket	0%
Republican	Ken Paxton	Kalshi	100%
Republican	John Cornyn	Kalshi	0%
Democratic	James Talarico	Polymarket	100%

Endorsement Tracker

Republican runoff endorsements

Ken Paxton(5)

Donald TrumpKey

Endorses Ken Paxton · May 18

Endorsed Paxton on Truth Social, calling him "a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas." Cited Paxton's support for ending the Senate filibuster and the SAVE Act, and faulted Cornyn for being late to back Trump's campaigns. Came the day after early voting began.

Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO)Notable

Endorses Ken Paxton

House Freedom Caucus member

Rep. Lance Gooden (R-TX)Notable

Endorses Ken Paxton

Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX)Notable

Endorses Ken Paxton

Turning Point ActionNotable

Endorses Ken Paxton

Charlie Kirk-affiliated organization

John Cornyn(3)

Sen. Majority Leader John ThuneKey

Endorses John Cornyn

National Border Patrol CouncilNotable

Endorses John Cornyn

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX)Key

Endorses John Cornyn

Third-place March 3 finisher (~13%). Endorsement is the Trump-adjacent / Black-Houston voter signal that Cornyn carried into the runoff; Hunt-voter exit polling ran ~54-35 Paxton, so the endorsement matters more as institutional cover than vote-direction.

Declined to Endorse

Gov. Greg AbbottKey

Declined to endorse

Said on the record he will not endorse: "I haven't made one yet, and I'm not going to make one." Abbott faces his own re-election and is staying neutral.

Sen. Ted CruzKey

Declined to endorse

Said he respects both men and will stay out of the runoff. Cruz endorsed Cornyn in 2020, staying neutral now is a notable shift.

Source:Texas Tribune·Campaign announcements, media reports

Frequently Asked

Who is running for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026?

Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, faces Democratic state representative James Talarico of Austin in the November 3, 2026 general election.

When is the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election?

The general election is November 3, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and early voting runs October 19 to 30.

How did Ken Paxton win the Republican nomination?

Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26, 2026 Republican primary runoff. Donald Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the vote.

What do polls show in the Paxton vs Talarico race?

Public polling in the race has been limited. The most recent surveys are shown in the polling table on this page, each with its pollster and any commissioner disclosed.

Is the 2026 Texas Senate race competitive?

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race Lean Republican as of mid-2026. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.

How much have the Senate candidates raised?

Through March 31, Talarico had raised $40.3M to Paxton's $7.6M (cash on hand $9.9M vs $2.3M). Outside groups back both: a pro-Talarico super PAC has announced up to $62M, and a pro-Paxton PAC has spent about $6M so far. A fundraising lead does not guarantee a Texas win, though: Beto O'Rourke out-raised Ted Cruz more than two-to-one in 2018 and still lost.

Where can I find Texas 2026 Senate results?

TexPolls publishes results from the Texas Secretary of State Election Night Returns API as votes are counted, starting when polls close on November 3, 2026.