US Senate
FederalCornyn (41.7%) and Paxton (41.0%) head to a May 26 runoff after neither cleared 50%. Talarico won the Democratic primary with 53.0% over Crockett.
Incumbent: John Cornyn(R)
One of two Texas seats in the U.S. Senate — votes on federal legislation, confirms judges and cabinet members, ratifies treaties.
Primary Results
Polls vs. Results
Republican Primary
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Party | Poll prediction (%) | Actual result (%) | Difference | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | Republican | 36% | 41.9% | +5.9 | |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | 40% | 40.7% | +0.7 | |
| Wesley Hunt | Republican | 17% | 13.5% | -3.5 | |
| Sara Canady | Republican | No poll data | 1.2% | N/A | |
| Anna Bender | Republican | No poll data | 1.1% | N/A | |
| James Talarico | Democratic | 52% | 52.5% | +0.5 | Winner |
| Jasmine Crockett | Democratic | 47% | 46.2% | -0.8 |
Republican Primary
Texas Attorney General
U.S. Representative, TX-38
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Minor party candidate
Democratic Primary
U.S. Representative, TX-30
State Representative, HD-50
US Senate
GOP Runoff
Runoff Watch| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45% |
| John Cornyn | 42% |
Primary Polls
GOP Primary
Runoff Watch| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 40% |
| John Cornyn | 36% |
| Wesley Hunt | 17% |
Dem Primary
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| James Talarico | 52% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 47% |
General Election Matchups
Cornyn vs. Crockett
Cornyn +5
Cornyn vs. Talarico
Cornyn +3
Paxton vs. Crockett
Toss-up
Paxton vs. Talarico
Toss-up
Hunt vs. Crockett
Hunt +5
Hunt vs. Talarico
Hunt +3
Margin of error ±2.8% — matchups within this range are essentially toss-ups
| Matchup | Candidates | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cornyn vs. Crockett | John Cornyn 48% vs Jasmine Crockett 43% | Cornyn leads |
| Cornyn vs. Talarico | John Cornyn 47% vs James Talarico 44% | Cornyn leads |
| Paxton vs. Crockett | Ken Paxton 46% vs Jasmine Crockett 46% | Toss-up |
| Paxton vs. Talarico | Ken Paxton 46% vs James Talarico 46% | Toss-up |
| Hunt vs. Crockett | Wesley Hunt 48% vs Jasmine Crockett 43% | Hunt leads |
| Hunt vs. Talarico | Wesley Hunt 47% vs James Talarico 44% | Hunt leads |
Republican Primary — Poll Movement
Feb → Feb
| Candidate | Feb | Feb | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 35% | 40% | +5 |
| John Cornyn | 41% | 36% | -5 |
| Wesley Hunt | 15% | 17% | +2 |
Democratic Primary — Poll Movement
Feb → Feb
| Candidate | Feb | Feb | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 37% | 52% | +15 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 58% | 47% | -11 |
Campaign Finance
FEC filings through 2026-04-28Raised $7.4M in first six weeks of 2026 alone — largest haul in Texas primary history. Combined Senate race ad spending topped $110M
Joint fundraising committees add ~$4M+ in combined resources not reflected here. FEC Feb 11 filing showed lower principal committee totals ($5.5M raised) — likely reflects committee restructuring; retaining higher figure which includes all prior receipts
Spending exceeds fundraising — likely transferred from previous House campaign committee
| Candidate | Party | Total Raised | Total Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | Democratic | $40,284,109 | $30,425,244 | $9,858,865 |
| Jasmine Crockett | Democratic | $11,092,295 | $10,459,209 | $633,086 |
| John Cornyn | Republican | $7,234,490 | $6,434,692 | $4,922,081 |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | $7,007,951 | $4,861,414 | $2,146,537 |
| Wesley Hunt | Republican | $2,071,562 | $4,526,166 | $32,572 |
Prediction Markets
Market-implied probability of winning, based on contract prices.
Republican Primary
Polymarket 61% · Kalshi 45%
Polymarket 39% · Kalshi 55%
Post-primary: Markets initially swung to Cornyn (86% on election night) before correcting. Polymarket ($9.7M volume) has Cornyn at 61%. Kalshi diverges at Paxton 55%. Two runoff polls (PPP, TPOR) both show Paxton ahead in likely voter surveys — markets pricing in broader electorate and Trump endorsement uncertainty
Democratic Primary
Talarico won the primary outright with 52.45% — no runoff needed. Market resolved. Crockett eliminated despite Kamala Harris endorsement
| Party | Candidate | Source | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn | Polymarket | 61% |
| Republican | Ken Paxton | Polymarket | 39% |
| Republican | Ken Paxton | Kalshi | 55% |
| Republican | John Cornyn | Kalshi | 45% |
| Democratic | James Talarico | Polymarket | 100% |
Markets vs. Polls
GOP Primary
John Cornyn
61%
Ken Paxton
40%
Prediction markets weight money, not just opinions — big fundraising advantages and on-the-ground momentum can shift market odds even when polls tell a different story.
Endorsement Tracker
Republican runoff endorsements
Ken Paxton(4)
John Cornyn(2)
Key Dates
Runoff date: May 26, 2026
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