U.S. House · TX-23
FederalKaty Padilla Stout (D) won the race for Texas' 23rd Congressional District with 52.1% of the vote to Brandon Herrera's (R) 44.0%, as called by the Associated Press.
Katy Padilla Stout vs. Brandon HerreraNovember 3 results
Democrat: Katy Padilla StoutWinner
Republican: Brandon HerreraBen Mendoza (Independent) 3.9%
State count last updated Nov. 4, 8:08 a.m. CT. Unofficial until the state canvass, between Nov. 21 and Dec. 7.
Counties must finish their canvass by Nov. 17, and totals can change until then.
Represents West Texas, the Big Bend, and western San Antonio in Congress, the largest House district in Texas by area, stretching from San Antonio to El Paso.
Before Election Day: Ratings and Analysis
Written before Election Day and not updated with returns. Ratings and polls describe the race before any returns were reported.
Tony Gonzales withdrew from the runoff March 5 amid a House ethics investigation, then resigned from Congress on April 14, 2026. The seat remains vacant. Gov. Abbott has not called a special election, so the Nov. 3 winner takes the seat for the term starting Jan. 3, 2027. Brandon Herrera, who led the primary 43.3% to 41.8%, is the automatic Republican nominee. Trump endorsed Herrera March 11. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball now rate it Lean Republican (Sabato since Oct. 20, and Cook as of Oct. 23), after both moved it from Safe to Likely Republican following the withdrawal.
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved this to Leans Republican on October 20, and Cook Political Report's ratings list it as Lean Republican as of October 23. Inside Elections rates it Likely Republican. Cook and Sabato had moved it to Likely Republican after Tony Gonzales withdrew March 5 following a House Ethics Committee investigation; Gonzales resigned on April 14, 2026. The House Clerk lists the seat as vacant; congressional staff continue constituent services under the Clerk's supervision. Brandon Herrera, a firearms-content creator with no political record, is the nominee in a structurally Republican West Texas district.
November Polling Before Election Day
Every poll here was conducted before Election Day. They stay here for comparison with the returns.
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Padilla Stout | Herrera | Undec. | Reported Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington PettsPolitical sponsor · excluded from average | Oct. 7, 2026 | — | 46% | 46% | — | Tied |
Normington Petts · Oct. 7, 2026
Padilla Stout 46% · Herrera 46%Tied
Political sponsor · excluded from average
Methodology and source notes for 1 poll
Normington Petts, Oct. 7, 2026
House Majority PAC memo dated October 21, 2026 ("HMP Memo: House Battleground Extends Deep Into Trump Territory"), a Democratic House super PAC; Normington Petts, fielded October 5-7, 2026. The memo's table lists TX-23 as Democratic candidate 46%, Republican candidate 46%, under columns for party, not names; this row assigns them to the party nominees. The memo gives no sample size, voter screen, margin of error, mode, question wording, or undecided share, so those fields are left blank. It does not say whether the ballot named independent Ben Mendoza. Sponsored poll, shown with the sponsor disclosed and excluded from the headline average.
Original poll release (opens in new tab)
Each row is one poll, shown as reported. Before Election Day, headline cards averaged eligible likely-voter polls of the nominees taken since the runoff, leaving out polls sponsored by campaigns or political operatives and polls held out over method or ballot differences. See the methodology page. The reported gap is the difference between candidate percentages, not a finding of a statistically significant lead. An undecided share appears only when explicitly recorded from the source; a dash means it has not been recorded. Independently rounded categories may not sum to 100%. Likely-voter (LV) and registered-voter (RV) samples are not directly comparable.
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Primary Results
Winner.Brandon Herrera
Tony Gonzales
Keith Barton
Francisco Canseco
Winner.Katy Padilla Stout
Santos Limon
Bruce Richardson
Gretel Marysdatter EnckRepublican nominee
Firearms manufacturer; content creator
Democratic nominee
Attorney
Also on the ballot
- Ben MendozaIndependent
Certified for the November 3 ballot by the Texas Secretary of State, August 28, 2026.
Campaign Finance
Dataset updated Nov. 1, 2026Candidate accounts only. Super PACs and other outside groups are not included.
FEC · Cycle totals through Oct. 14, 2026
Republican nominee, TX-23; candidate ID dates to his 2024 run.
FEC · Cycle totals through Oct. 14, 2026
Democratic nominee, TX-23.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Herrera | Republican | $3,115,205 | $2,804,434 | $318,812 | FEC · Cycle totals through Oct. 14, 2026 |
| Katy Padilla Stout | Democratic | $1,117,715 | $973,291 | $144,424 | FEC · Cycle totals through Oct. 14, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2026 race for Texas' 23rd Congressional District?
Katy Padilla Stout (D) won the race for Texas' 23rd Congressional District with 52.1% of the vote to Brandon Herrera's (R) 44.0%, as called by the Associated Press. Results are unofficial until the canvass.
Who was on the 2026 ballot for Texas' 23rd Congressional District?
Katy Padilla Stout (Democratic), Brandon Herrera (Republican), and Ben Mendoza (Independent) were on the November 3 ballot.
Brandon Herrera vs. Katy Padilla Stout: who was on the ballot for Texas' 23rd Congressional District?
Republican Brandon Herrera and Democrat Katy Padilla Stout were the major-party candidates for Texas' 23rd Congressional District on the November 3, 2026 ballot.
Where can I see 2026 results for Texas' 23rd Congressional District?
This page publishes Texas Secretary of State returns for Texas' 23rd Congressional District as they become available. Election-night counts are unofficial until canvassed, and TexPolls marks a race called only after a named news organization calls it.