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US House · TX-28

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Tano Tijerina (R) faces Henry Cuellar (D) for TX-28's U.S. House seat on November 3, 2026.

Henry Cuellar vs. Tano TijerinaOn the November 3 ballot

Lean D
Democrat: Henry Cuellar (incumbent)
45 percent in polling average
Republican: Tano Tijerina
34 percent in polling average
Latest qualifying poll1 qualifying poll · D+11 · independent · Aug 22
Rated by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball (opens in new tab)

Also on the ballot: Marlón Durán (Green)

Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar defends a district that leans Republican under the 2025 map, yet Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate it Lean Democratic after Trump's December 2025 pardon ended the federal bribery case against him. His challenger is Tano Tijerina, a Democrat-turned-Republican Webb County judge who won the GOP primary decisively.

Represents Laredo and South Texas in Congress, one of the most competitive House seats in Texas and a national bellwether for Latino voter alignment.

November General Election

Nov 3, 2026
Rated Lean DemocraticCook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate this Lean Democratic after Trump's December 2025 pardon of Henry Cuellar removed the bribery prosecution hanging over his reelection. Inside Elections rates it Tilt Democratic, seeing Cuellar as only narrowly favored in a district Trump won by 10 points under the new map.

November polling

Scroll across to compare candidates and reported gaps.

General election polls for Tano Tijerina vs Henry Cuellar, shown as reported
PollsterDateSampleTijerinaCuellarUndec.Reported gap
Texas Southern UniversityAug 22, 2026600 LV±4 MOE34%45%15%Cuellar +11
Methodology and source notes: Texas Southern University, Aug 22, 2026

Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at TSU (Michael O. Adams and Mark P. Jones), August 2026 report on TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34. Fielded August 18 to 22, 2026 by SMS to registered voters, directed to an online survey in English and Spanish; likely voters identified with a likely-voter screen and past election participation. The report names no outside sponsor. TX-28: 600 likely voters, ±4.00 points; Green Marlón Durán 6%, 15% undecided. The report describes its sampling and survey method but not its weighting; the site’s transparency rule requires methodology, sample size, margin of error, and a public source, which this report meets, the same as TSU’s statewide rows.

Original poll release (opens in new tab)

Each row is one poll, shown as reported. Headline cards separately average eligible independent likely-voter polls; see the methodology page. The reported gap is the difference between candidate percentages, not a finding of a statistically significant lead. An undecided share appears only when explicitly recorded from the source; a dash means it has not been recorded. Independently rounded categories may not sum to 100%. Likely-voter (LV) and registered-voter (RV) samples are not directly comparable.

Source:Texas Southern University (opens in new tab)·Polls conducted Aug 2026

The November ballot, explained

Texas race coverage by email, only when something changes before Nov 3.

Campaign Finance

Dataset updated Oct 6, 2026
Henry Cuellar$2.2M
Spent: $1.2MCash: $1.1MFEC filing

FEC · Cycle totals through Jun 30, 2026

Incumbent (D, TX-28). Candidate ID retains the TX-23 prefix from his original 2002 filing.

Tano Tijerina$1.4M
Spent: $632KCash: $768KFEC filing

FEC · Cycle totals through Jun 30, 2026

Republican nominee, TX-28.

Campaign finance data for candidates
CandidatePartyRaisedSpentCash on HandCoverage
Henry CuellarDemocratic$2,231,952$1,150,307$1,129,604FEC · Cycle totals through Jun 30, 2026
Tano TijerinaRepublican$1,399,881$631,693$768,188FEC · Cycle totals through Jun 30, 2026

Frequently Asked

Who is running for Congress in Texas' 28th District in 2026?

Tano Tijerina (R) faces Henry Cuellar (D, incumbent) in the November 3, 2026 general election.

When is the 2026 TX-28 election?

The general election is November 3, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, early voting runs October 19 to 30, and mail-ballot applications are due October 23.

Is the 2026 TX-28 race competitive?

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Lean Democratic. The rating is the handicapper's assessment, not a TexPolls forecast.

What area does TX-28 cover?

Represents Laredo and South Texas in Congress, one of the most competitive House seats in Texas and a national bellwether for Latino voter alignment.

How were the 2026 TX-28 nominees decided?

Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar defends a district that leans Republican under the 2025 map, yet Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate it Lean Democratic after Trump's December 2025 pardon ended the federal bribery case against him. His challenger is Tano Tijerina, a Democrat-turned-Republican Webb County judge who won the GOP primary decisively.

Who else is on the ballot in Texas' 28th District in 2026?

Beyond the Republican and Democratic nominees, Marlón Durán is the Green candidate. The full November 3 ballot was certified by the Texas Secretary of State on August 28, 2026.

Key Dates

Registration deadline (passed)Oct 5, 2026
Early votingOct 19 to Oct 30, 2026
Mail ballot application must arriveOct 23, 2026
General ElectionNov 3, 2026