Governor
StatewideGreg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D) for Governor on November 3, 2026.
Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa on November 3. All three major handicappers rate the race Likely Republican, each having moved it off Solid or Safe Republican during August 2026 as Abbott's polling lead narrowed to single digits. Abbott won the March primary with 81.8% over a crowded field; Hinojosa took the Democratic nomination with 58.5%.
Incumbent: Greg Abbott(R)
Chief executive of Texas, signs or vetoes legislation, appoints agency heads, commands the National Guard.
November General Election
Nov 3, 2026Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rate the race Likely Republican, each having moved it off Solid or Safe Republican during August 2026. Their ratings pages were checked on Sept 5. Greg Abbott, governor since 2015, is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa of Austin. September surveys differ: Emerson/Nexstar (September 12-14) reported Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 46%, while ReconMR/Siena (September 8-11) reported Abbott at 45% and Hinojosa at 49%. Both surveyed likely voters. The polling table links each original release and explains its method. Abbott won his 2022 reelection over Beto O'Rourke by about 11 points, and no Democrat has won the governorship since Ann Richards in 1990. The rating is the handicapper's assessment, not a TexPolls forecast.
The November ballot, explained
Texas race coverage by email, only when something changes before Nov 3.
Primary Results
Winner.Greg Abbott(i)
Winner.Gina Hinojosa
Chris Bell
Bobby ColePolls vs. Results
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Party | Poll prediction (%) | Actual result (%) | Difference | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa | Democratic | 59% | 58.5% | -0.5 | Winner |
| Chris Bell | Democratic | 25% | 9.8% | -15.2 | |
| Angela "Tiaangie" Villescaz | Democratic | No poll data | 6.8% | N/A | |
| Patricia Abrego | Democratic | No poll data | 5.8% | N/A | |
| Andrew White | Democratic | No poll data | 5.3% | N/A | |
| Bobby Cole | Democratic | 9% | 5.1% | -3.9 | |
| Jose Navarro Balbuena | Democratic | No poll data | 3.0% | N/A | |
| Carlton W. Hart | Democratic | No poll data | 2.9% | N/A | |
| Zach Vance | Democratic | No poll data | 2.7% | N/A |
Republican nominee
Democratic nominee
State Representative, HD-49
Also on the ballot
- Pat DixonLibertarian
Certified for the November 3 ballot by the Texas Secretary of State, August 28, 2026.
Governor
Dem Primary
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa | 59% |
| Chris Bell | 25% |
| Bobby Cole | 9% |
General Election Polling
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Abbott | Hinojosa | Undec. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeFielded September 12-14, 2026. Sponsored by Nexstar Media. Libertarian Pat Dixon received 2%; 4% were undecided. The reported ±3.0 figure is a 95% credibility interval, not a traditional sampling margin of error. MMS text-to-web from a probability-based voter panel plus PureSpectrum; weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region; English only. | Sep 2026 | 1,000 LV±3 credibility interval | 49% | 46% | 4% | Tied |
| ReconMR / Siena Research InstituteFielded September 8-11, 2026. ReconMR/Siena's nonpartisan Texas Poll. Prompt named only Abbott and Hinojosa; 2% chose someone else, 1% would not vote, and 4% did not know or refused. Pat Dixon was an unprompted open-end response rounded to 0%. Mixed live telephone and text-to-web voter-file sample; telephone interviews in English and Spanish. MOE includes design effects. Published rounded categories sum to 101%. | Sep 2026 | 614 LV±4.3 MOE | 45% | 49% | 4% | Tied |
| N+ Univision / YouGovFielded August 27-September 4, 2026. N+ Univision media survey conducted online by YouGov. Registered voters, so excluded from the likely-voter headline. The nonprobability survey reports an equivalent margin of error for a matched propensity-score design, not a traditional sampling MOE. Crosstabs label this measure 'Combined - Recoded' and do not publish exact ballot wording or leaner treatment; 1% chose another candidate and 5% were undecided. | Sep 2026 | 1,000 RV±3.6 equivalent MOE | 47% | 47% | 5% | Tied |
| AARP / Fabrizio Ward + Impact ResearchFielded August 30-September 1, 2026. Commissioned by AARP and conducted by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. Published total includes a forced follow-up among initially undecided voters; the annotated questionnaire does not publish a clean, exact unallocated topline. Two-candidate prompt; 5% remained undecided after the follow-up. Live cell 40%, live landline 15%, and SMS-to-web 45%; English and Spanish; voter-list sample. Sampling error is unadjusted for design effects. Displayed separately and excluded from the headline average pending ballot-comparability review. | Sep 2026 | 895 LV±3.3 MOE | 49% | 46% | 5% | Tied |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist. Ballot named Libertarian Pat Dixon at 1% and independent Jenn Mack Raphoon at 1%. Fielded before the Aug 28 ballot certification. Jenn Mack Raphoon is not printed on the November ballot, but she is a certified write-in candidate for governor, so votes cast for her are counted. | Aug 2026 | 1,000 LV±3.3 MOE | 49% | 42% | — | Abbott +7 |
| UT Texas Politics ProjectBallot named Libertarian Pat Dixon at 3%. Registered voters, not likely voters. | Aug 2026 | 1,200 RV±2.83 MOE | 45% | 40% | — | Abbott +5 |
| Emerson CollegeEmerson College Polling/Nexstar Media, fielded Aug 9-10. 4% undecided. | Aug 2026 | 1,000 LV±3 MOE | 49% | 45% | — | Abbott +4 |
| Texas Southern UniversityThree-way ballot incl. Pat Dixon (L) 3%; 5% undecided. Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center; SMS-to-web, fielded Jul 27-30, coauthored by Rice's Mark P. Jones. Sampling frame and weighting variables are not disclosed in the report. | Jul 2026 | 1,200 LV±2.83 MOE | 49% | 43% | — | Abbott +6 |
| Texas Pulse / ReconMRTexas A&M Bush School consortium, fielded Jul 27-30, released Aug 7. MOE is the core-question figure (n=619); two-way ballot. Abbott led 49-43 in the June wave. | Jul 2026 | 619 LV±4.7 MOE | 46% | 45% | — | Tied |
| Fox NewsBeacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), fielded Jul 23-27. Live interviewers on landlines and cellphones plus text-to-web, sampled from the statewide voter file. Registered voters, not likely voters. Both ballots are inside the margin of error. | Jul 2026 | 1,006 RV±3 MOE | 50% | 49% | — | Tied |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist; conducted with Lake Research Partners. | Jul 2026 | 1,048 LV±3.4 MOE | 45% | 42% | — | Tied |
| New York Times / Siena CollegeIndependent, non-partisan. Fielded June 19-27. | Jun 2026 | 656 LV±4.5 MOE | 51% | 44% | — | Abbott +7 |
| UT Texas Politics ProjectRegistered voters, fielded June 5-12 by YouGov. | Jun 2026 | 1,200 RV±3.47 MOE | 47% | 40% | — | Abbott +7 |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchTPOR director Luke Warford is a Democratic strategist; commissioner not disclosed. | Apr 2026 | 1,865 LV±2.5 MOE | 48% | 43% | — | Abbott +5 |
| UT TylerPolled before the March 3 primary set the nominees. | Feb 2026 | 1,117±3.4 MOE | 49% | 41% | — | Abbott +8 |
| Emerson CollegePolled before the March 3 primary set the nominees. | Jan 2026 | 1,165 RV±2.8 MOE | 50% | 42% | — | Abbott +8 |
Each row is one poll, shown as reported. Headline cards separately average eligible independent likely-voter polls; see the methodology page. “Tied” means the reported gap is within the poll's stated uncertainty, not that the candidates have equal support. An undecided share appears only when explicitly recorded from the source; a dash means it has not been recorded. Independently rounded categories may not sum to 100%. Likely-voter (LV) and registered-voter (RV) samples are not directly comparable.
Democratic Primary · Poll Movement
Feb → Feb
| Candidate | Feb | Feb | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa | 76% | 59% | -17 |
| Chris Bell | 4% | 25% | +21 |
| Bobby Cole | 6% | 9% | +3 |
Campaign Finance
Dataset updated Sep 19, 2026Texas Ethics Commission · Coverage through Jun 30, 2026
Texans for Greg Abbott (SPAC, filer 00051153), July 15 semiannual covering Feb 22 to Jun 30, 2026. Abbott also keeps a small personal candidate account holding $231,732. His cash peaked at $105.1M on Dec 31, 2025 and fell about $37.9M over the first half of 2026.
Texas Ethics Commission · Coverage through Jun 30, 2026
Regina Hinojosa candidate/officeholder account (filer 00080440), July 15 semiannual covering Feb 22 to Jun 30, 2026. Carries $387,000 in outstanding loans.
| Candidate | Party | Total Raised | Total Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | Republican | $25,505,118 | $54,566,359 | $67,229,566 |
| Gina Hinojosa | Democratic | $6,171,780 | $3,990,461 | $3,002,416 |
Prediction Markets
Market-implied probability of winning, based on contract prices.
Republican Primary
Market closedResolved winner: Greg Abbott
Abbott won with 81.76%. Market resolved. No runoff
General Election
Nov 3, 202690c for Abbott on Jul 19, 87.8c on Aug 21, and 82.1c on Sept 6, with the Democratic contract up to 18.0c. Abbott has given up close to 8 points since mid-July. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections each rate the race Likely Republican, having moved it off Solid or Safe Republican during August.
Contract prices, not a TexPolls forecast. Resolves November 2026. Thin market relative to the Senate race at about $92K combined volume against $1.0M, and prices come from each party's own market, so they do not sum to exactly 100. Kalshi also lists a Texas governor market, but it has not traded since May 11 and is excluded.
| Party | Candidate | Source | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Abbott | Polymarket | 100% |
Frequently Asked
Who is running for Governor of Texas in 2026?
Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, governor since 2015, faces Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa of Austin in the November 3, 2026 general election.
When is the 2026 Texas Governor election?
The general election is November 3, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and early voting runs October 19 to 30.
Is the 2026 Texas Governor race competitive?
Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate it Likely Republican, each having moved it off Solid Republican during August 2026. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990. September surveys differ: Emerson/Nexstar (September 12-14) reported Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 46%, while ReconMR/Siena (September 8-11) reported Abbott at 45% and Hinojosa at 49%. Both surveyed likely voters. The polling table links each original release and explains its method.
What has Gina Hinojosa proposed in the governor's race?
In July 2026, Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee, proposed sending every Texas household a $1,500 check from the state's Rainy Day Fund, which held a record $24.8 billion as of November 2025. She calls it a "corruption tax refund" and her campaign puts the cost at about $17 billion. Tapping the fund for a purpose like this requires a two-thirds vote of the Legislature, which Republicans control, so the proposal is a campaign position without a clear path to passage.
Who else is on the ballot for Governor in 2026?
Beyond the Republican and Democratic nominees, Pat Dixon is the Libertarian candidate. The full November 3 ballot was certified by the Texas Secretary of State on August 28, 2026.
Key Dates
Also on the November ballot
Paxton vs. Talarico for U.S. SenateOther statewide races
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