Texas 2026 General Election: How Texas Moved, County Shift

texpolls-texas-2026-county-shift.csv has one row per Texas county (254) with the two-party margin in the 2022 and 2026 governor's races and in the 2024 presidential and 2026 U.S. Senate races, and how far each margin moved.

How to Credit
Source: TexPolls (texpolls.com), using Texas Secretary of State results.
Link to the dataset: https://texpolls.com/results#how-texas-moved

Status
The 2026 figures are unofficial returns and stay unofficial until the state canvass. The status column says unofficial until then. as_of is the Texas Secretary of State feed time of the 2026 returns (UTC).

Columns
fips: five-character Texas county FIPS code. Import it as text.
county: county name, without the word County.
gov2022_margin, gov2026_margin: two-party margin in the governor's race, in points. Positive is a Democratic lead; negative is a Republican lead.
gov_shift_points: gov2026_margin minus gov2022_margin. Positive means the county's margin moved toward Democrats.
pres2024_margin, sen2026_margin: two-party margin in the 2024 presidential race and the 2026 U.S. Senate race, same sign convention.
pres_sen_shift_points: sen2026_margin minus pres2024_margin. This compares different offices and electorates (a presidential year and a midterm).
status: unofficial or official.
as_of: see Status.

Method
Two-party margin = (Democratic votes minus Republican votes) divided by (Democratic plus Republican votes), times 100. Third-party and write-in votes are left out. Values are rounded to 0.1 points, and each shift is the difference of the two rounded margins, so it matches the site. A margin describes the county as a whole, not any group of voters.

Sources
Texas Secretary of State, 2018 general election canvass: https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist331_state.htm
Texas Secretary of State, 2020 general election canvass: https://results.texas-election.com/static/data/election/44144/262/
Texas Secretary of State, 2022 general election canvass: https://results.texas-election.com/static/data/election/47009/242/
Texas Secretary of State, 2024 general election canvass: https://results.texas-election.com/static/data/election/49664/1012/
Texas Secretary of State, 2026 unofficial election returns: https://goelect.txelections.civixapps.com/api-ivis-system/api/s3/enr/election/countyInfo/53815

License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data are provided as is, without warranty.