{
  "_meta": {
    "purpose": "Historical Texas primary runoff turnout — used to ground runoff explainers and the 2026 runoff preview email in real numbers instead of folklore.",
    "lastUpdated": "2026-05-15",
    "primarySource": "Texas Secretary of State — Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970–current)",
    "primarySourceUrl": "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml",
    "schemaNotes": "totalBallots = aggregate runoff ballot count for that party. percentOfRegistered uses the registered-voter count from the May/July of the runoff. marqueeRace is the highest-engagement statewide contest on the ballot (null if none). marqueeRaceShare = approximate share of total runoff ballots cast in the marquee race (only computable when one race dominated).",
    "discrepancyNote2022": "Some news outlets cite ~8.2% combined turnout for 2022, which does not reconcile against either the ~13.6M or ~17.2M registered voter denominator with the confirmed 954K combined ballots. We use the SoS absolute counts (752,780 R / 201,283 D) and compute against ~17.2M (registered voters by May 2022), yielding ~4.4% R / ~1.2% D / ~5.5% combined."
  },
  "cycles": [
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "party": "R",
      "runoffDate": "2012-07-31",
      "totalBallots": 1111938,
      "registeredVoters": 13065425,
      "percentOfRegistered": 8.51,
      "marqueeRace": "US Senate — Cruz vs. Dewhurst",
      "marqueeRaceShare": 1.00,
      "notes": "Modern ceiling for TX primary runoff turnout. Cruz's Tea Party insurgency drove exceptional base mobilization in a July runoff date that would normally suppress turnout. Cruz won 57–43. Only modern cycle where a single race consumed 100% of ballots.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml",
        "https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist162_state.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "party": "R",
      "runoffDate": "2014-05-27",
      "totalBallots": 752780,
      "registeredVoters": 13601324,
      "percentOfRegistered": 5.53,
      "marqueeRace": "Lt. Governor — Patrick vs. Dewhurst",
      "marqueeRaceShare": 0.996,
      "notes": "Patrick crushed Dewhurst 65–35 — ideological repudiation of the Republican establishment. Clear Tea Party vs. establishment narrative but drew 32% fewer votes than 2012.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml",
        "https://www.kut.org/politics/2014-05-27/texas-primary-runoff-election-results-analysis"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "party": "D",
      "runoffDate": "2014-05-27",
      "totalBallots": 201283,
      "registeredVoters": 13601324,
      "percentOfRegistered": 1.48,
      "marqueeRace": null,
      "marqueeRaceShare": null,
      "notes": "No statewide D marquee. Confirms the floor for D primary runoffs without a top-of-ticket race.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "party": "R",
      "runoffDate": "2016-05-24",
      "totalBallots": 376387,
      "registeredVoters": 14238436,
      "percentOfRegistered": 2.64,
      "marqueeRace": null,
      "marqueeRaceShare": null,
      "notes": "No statewide R marquee — all 2016 R runoffs were congressional and legislative. Turnout drops to roughly one-third of the 2012 peak.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "party": "D",
      "runoffDate": "2016-05-24",
      "totalBallots": 186912,
      "registeredVoters": 14238436,
      "percentOfRegistered": 1.31,
      "marqueeRace": null,
      "marqueeRaceShare": null,
      "notes": "Sub-1.5% floor without a statewide D marquee.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "party": "D",
      "runoffDate": "2018-05-22",
      "totalBallots": 415000,
      "registeredVoters": 15400000,
      "percentOfRegistered": 2.69,
      "marqueeRace": "Governor — Valdez vs. White",
      "marqueeRaceShare": 1.03,
      "notes": "Called by Texas Tribune 'the lowest Democratic gubernatorial runoff turnout in nearly 100 years' — 60% drop from the 1M who voted in the March 2018 D primary. Despite Beto-era D enthusiasm, runoff participation cratered. Valdez won 53–47.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/22/texas-primary-runoffs-results-who-won/",
        "https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/texas-elections-2018/2018/05/23/287145/voter-turnout-in-a-texas-democratic-gubernatorial-runoff-hasnt-been-this-low-in-nearly-100-years/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "party": "R",
      "runoffDate": "2018-05-22",
      "totalBallots": null,
      "registeredVoters": 15400000,
      "percentOfRegistered": null,
      "marqueeRace": null,
      "marqueeRaceShare": null,
      "notes": "Abbott won the March primary outright (90%+), so no statewide R runoff. 17+ congressional and 15+ legislative R runoffs. No public aggregate available; estimated 200–350K based on 2016 baseline (~376K with no statewide).",
      "estimatedRange": [200000, 350000],
      "sources": [
        "https://apps.texastribune.org/elections/2018/runoff-election-results/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "party": "D",
      "runoffDate": "2020-07-14",
      "totalBallots": 955735,
      "registeredVoters": 16500000,
      "percentOfRegistered": 5.79,
      "marqueeRace": "US Senate — Hegar vs. West",
      "marqueeRaceShare": 1.00,
      "notes": "Texas Democratic chairs called it 'the highest raw number of votes cast in any Democratic primary runoff in Texas history.' Held during COVID — mail-in surge helped. Hegar beat West 52–48. Benchmark: 1994 D Senate runoff was 8.3% on 746K ballots.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/15/texas-democrats-primary-runoff-turnout/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "party": "R",
      "runoffDate": "2022-05-24",
      "totalBallots": 752780,
      "registeredVoters": 17200000,
      "percentOfRegistered": 4.38,
      "marqueeRace": "Attorney General — Paxton vs. Bush",
      "marqueeRaceShare": 0.76,
      "notes": "Paxton won 68–32. Closest historical analog to the 2026 Senate runoff: high-profile statewide R race, Trump-entangled, drove most but not all of the ballot. AG race itself drew ~571,533 votes (76% of R ballots).",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml",
        "https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/24/texas-attorney-general-runoff-results-ken-paxton-george-p-bush/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "party": "D",
      "runoffDate": "2022-05-24",
      "totalBallots": 201283,
      "registeredVoters": 17200000,
      "percentOfRegistered": 1.17,
      "marqueeRace": "Attorney General — Garza vs. Jaworski",
      "marqueeRaceShare": null,
      "notes": "Garza won 63–37. D side had a statewide marquee but participation stayed at the historical D floor — confirms that even with a statewide race, the D coalition under-mobilizes for runoffs.",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml",
        "https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_Attorney_General_election,_2022_(May_24_Democratic_primary_runoff)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "party": "R",
      "runoffDate": "2024-05-28",
      "totalBallots": null,
      "registeredVoters": 17700000,
      "percentOfRegistered": null,
      "marqueeRace": "House Speaker Phelan HD-21 survival",
      "marqueeRaceShare": null,
      "notes": "No statewide R runoff. Phelan's HD-21 race was the highest-attention contest (25,260 district votes, won by 366). 13 House R runoffs + 8 congressional R runoffs. No public aggregate. Back-calculation from FairVote's 49% median runoff drop suggests ~350–500K.",
      "estimatedRange": [350000, 500000],
      "sources": [
        "https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2024/texas-may-2024-runoff-election-results/",
        "https://fairvote.org/texas-senate-and-house-races-head-to-costly-may-runoff-elections/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "party": "D",
      "runoffDate": "2024-05-28",
      "totalBallots": null,
      "registeredVoters": 17700000,
      "percentOfRegistered": null,
      "marqueeRace": null,
      "marqueeRaceShare": null,
      "notes": "No statewide D runoff. No public aggregate; estimated 50–100K from FairVote 49% drop.",
      "estimatedRange": [50000, 100000],
      "sources": [
        "https://fairvote.org/texas-senate-and-house-races-head-to-costly-may-runoff-elections/"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "patterns": {
    "withMarqueeStatewide": {
      "description": "Runoffs anchored by a high-profile statewide contest.",
      "examples": ["2012 R (Cruz/Dewhurst, 8.5%)", "2014 R (Patrick/Dewhurst, 5.5%)", "2020 D (Hegar/West, 5.8%)", "2022 R (Paxton/Bush, 4.4%)"],
      "rangeRpct": [4.4, 8.5],
      "rangeDpct": [2.7, 5.8]
    },
    "withoutMarqueeStatewide": {
      "description": "Runoffs limited to congressional, legislative, and local races.",
      "examples": ["2014 D (1.5%)", "2016 R (2.6%)", "2016 D (1.3%)", "2018 R (1.5–2.3% est.)", "2024 R (~2–3% est.)"],
      "rangeRpct": [2.0, 2.6],
      "rangeDpct": [1.3, 1.5]
    },
    "expectations2026": {
      "context": "Cornyn–Paxton Senate R runoff is the marquee. Closest historical analog is 2022 Paxton–Bush AG (high-profile statewide R race, Trump-entangled). No D statewide runoff in 2026.",
      "expectedRpct": [4.0, 6.0],
      "expectedDpct": [1.0, 2.0],
      "expectedCombinedPct": [5.0, 7.0]
    }
  }
}