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TexPolls
The Road to November · November 3

The runoffs are over. Now it gets real.

4.35M Texans voted in the March primary, the highest midterm primary turnout in state history. Every statewide nominee is now set. Here are the November matchups, from the U.S. Senate to the courts.

57days to Nov 3
See the matchupsMake a plan
Lead raceUS Senate
Tossup
Democrat: James Talarico
47 percent in polling average
Republican: Ken Paxton
46 percent in polling average
Rated · Tossup4-poll avg · D+1 · independent · Aug 10
Rated by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball (opens in new tab)
Polls
Talarico
47
Paxton
46

4-poll avg · independent · Aug 10 · LV

Emerson College (opens in new tab)
Market
49.5¢Paxton
Jun 18Jul 3Jul 19Jul 30Aug 7Aug 12Aug 21Sep 6

Paxton held 55.5c to 56.5c from mid-June through Jul 27, slipped to 53.5c on Jul 30 and 51.5c by Aug 7, then dropped under 50c on Aug 9 and has stayed there: a low of 47.5c on Aug 12-13, 49.5c on Aug 21, and 49.5c again on Sept 6. Talarico has been the narrow favorite on Polymarket since Aug 9, a first for this market, though the gap is now a single point. Range since the May 26 runoff: 47.5c to 61.5c.

Polymarket (opens in new tab)
Money
Talarico$68.6M
Paxton$9.2M

Total raised, FEC filings through Jun 30, 2026

Cash on hand: $21.5M vs $1.8M

FEC / Texas Ethics Commission (opens in new tab)

“We see the Senate now as a toss up, one that still might slightly favor Republicans. But it is an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats.” Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report · Aug 20 · via CNN

Updated Sep 6, 2026
Second race to watch
Likely RGovernor
Democrat: Gina Hinojosa44%VSRepublican: Greg Abbott49%
4-poll avg · R+5 · independent · Aug 10 · Rated by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections
Head to Head

The November matchups

Democratic nominee versus Republican nominee. Ratings are from independent election analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) where available, and Texas's partisan voting history otherwise. Not a TexPolls forecast.
All 25 races

Competitive

4· Tossup and lean races
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez
Republican: Eric Flores
US House · TX-34 · Federal · Tossup
Democrat: Bobby Pulido
Republican: Monica De La Cruz
US House · TX-15 · Federal · Lean R
Democrat: Henry Cuellar
Republican: Tano Tijerina
US House · TX-28 · Federal · Lean D
Democrat: Johnny Garcia
Republican: Carlos De La Cruz
US House · TX-35 · Federal · Lean R

Likely

6· Favored, not yet certain
Democrat: Clayton Tucker
Republican: Nate Sheets
Agriculture Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Nathan Johnson43 percent
Republican: Mayes Middleton46 percent
Attorney General · Statewide · Likely R · 2-poll avg
Democrat: Sarah Eckhardt39 percent
Republican: Don Huffines46 percent
Comptroller · Statewide · Likely R* · 1 poll
Democrat: Vikki Goodwin
Republican: Dan Patrick
Lt. Governor · Statewide · Likely R*
Democrat: Jon Rosenthal41 percent
Republican: Bo French44 percent
Railroad Commissioner · Statewide · Likely R* · 1 poll
Democrat: Katy Padilla Stout
Republican: Brandon Herrera
US House · TX-23 · Federal · Likely R

Based on Texas's partisan voting history, not a rating from an independent election analyst. No major analyst (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) rates Texas down-ballot statewide races. Methodology

How Texas Has Voted

254 counties, one history

How each Senate nominee won their party, plus the 2024 partisan baseline. Switch views below. A historical reference, not a forecast. County-level November results replace these on election night.
Full turnout data

County pages: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis and 15 more

The Outlook

How competitive is the November ballot?

Democrats favored in 4 races2 tossupsRepublicans favored in 19 races

25 statewide and federal offices on the ballot

Safe D · 3Lean D · 1Tossup · 2Lean R · 2Likely R · 7Safe R · 10
Voting Calendar

Key dates to November 3

19M registered · deadline Oct 5Full election calendar
Register by
Oct 5
Register to vote
Last day to register
Register to vote (opens in new tab)
Early voting
Oct 19
Early voting starts
In-person early voting
Find your polling place (opens in new tab)
Mail ballot
Oct 23
Mail ballot request due
Application must arrive
Vote by mail (opens in new tab)
Early voting
Oct 30
Early voting ends
Last early-voting day
Election Day
Nov 3
Election Day
Polls open 7am to 7pm
Official voter resourcesRegister to vote (opens in new tab)Check your registration (opens in new tab)Voter ID requirements (opens in new tab)Vote by mail (opens in new tab)Find your polling place (opens in new tab)
The Basics

Common questions about November 3

Who is running against Ken Paxton in 2026?
Democratic state representative James Talarico of Austin is running against Ken Paxton for John Cornyn's U.S. Senate seat. Talarico won the March 3 Democratic primary outright with 52.5%; Paxton defeated Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the May 26 runoff. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race a Toss Up, Cook since Aug 20 and Sabato since Aug 26, 2026; Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican.
Who is running for Governor of Texas in 2026?
Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, governor since 2015, faces Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa of Austin in the November 3, 2026 general election.
Who is running against Dan Patrick in 2026?
Democratic state representative Vikki Goodwin of Austin is running against Dan Patrick for lieutenant governor. Goodwin won the May 26, 2026 Democratic runoff and faces Patrick, the Republican incumbent since 2015, on November 3.
Who is running for Texas Attorney General in 2026?
Republican state senator Mayes Middleton faces Democratic state senator Nathan Johnson in the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat is open because Ken Paxton ran for U.S. Senate instead of seeking re-election.
When is the 2026 Texas general election?
The Texas general election is November 3, 2026. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
What is the voter registration deadline in Texas for the 2026 election?
October 5, 2026 is the last day to register to vote in the November 3, 2026 Texas general election.
When is early voting in Texas in 2026?
Early voting in person runs October 19, 2026 through October 30, 2026 for the November 3, 2026 Texas general election.
When is the deadline to apply for a mail ballot in Texas in 2026?
Applications to vote by mail must be received by October 23, 2026. A postmark by that date is not enough; the application has to arrive.

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